Picture Bitcoin as that river slowing to a trickle. That's the reality hitting the crypto king in March 2025

This is the reality hitting the crypto king in March 2025. Data from Glassnodes “The Week On-chain Newsletter” on March 18, 2025, reveals a stark truth: liquidity—the fuel of Bitcoin’s price engine—is drying up fast.

The crypto king, Bitcoin, is slowing to a trickle.

Liquidity, the fuel of Bitcoin’s price engine, is drying up fast. Net capital inflows, measured by the Realized Cap, had a sluggish 0.67% monthly growth in March 18, 2025.

On-chain, the ‘Hot Supply,’ coins aged one week or less, dropped from 5.9% of circulating supply at the market high to 2.8% now, a 50% contraction, signaling fewer coins are up for grabs.

Exchanges saw a 54% crash in daily inflows, falling from 58.6k BTC at the peak to 26.9k BTC. Less Bitcoin hitting exchanges means weaker buying power.

Futures markets are also shrinking. Open interest fell 35%, from $57 billion at Bitcoin’s all-time high to $37 billion today, according to Glassnodes' "The Week On-chain Newsletter."

Recently, traders pulled back, and the cash-and-carry trade, blending US spot ETFs and CME Group futures, is unraveling. ETF outflows spiked as futures positions closed, adding sell pressure to spot markets.

Options markets lean bearish. The Volatility Smile shows put options, bets on a price drop, carry higher premiums. The Options 25 Delta Skew, comparing volatility between puts and calls, climbed for 1-week and 1-month contracts, a sign traders want downside protection.

Investors split into two camps:

Short-Term Holders (STHs), those owning Bitcoin for 155 days or less, are hurting. Their unrealized losses hit a 2σ level, a mark seen in past bull market dips but mild compared to the 2022 crash or May 2021 sell-off. Over 30 days, STHs locked in $7 billion in losses, the biggest capitulation this cycle, yet not full-blown panic.

Long-Term Holders (LTHs) play a different game. Their Binary Spending Indicator shows spending has eased. Supply held by LTHs is rising after months of decline.

Even at $82,000, exchange inflows from LTHs stayed modest—some took profits, but most held firm. LTHs control a hefty chunk of network wealth, more than usual for this cycle stage, and their grip could shape what’s next.

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