Change vs. Inertia

The ongoing tension between embracing change and clinging to established practices is acutely felt in the ever-evolving landscape of web technologies. While advancements in web platform capabilities are undeniable—a stark contrast to the limitations of a decade ago—the frenetic pace of new JavaScript features and frameworks has noticeably slowed. This shift mirrors a seasonal change, a cooling of the once-feverish innovation. The term "JavaScript fatigue" aptly captures this sentiment.

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Adams's witty observation highlights the inherent imperfection of software; it's perpetually in flux, striving for improvement. However, a subtle shift is occurring within the web development community. The rapid expansion of recent years is giving way to a period of consolidation and stabilization.

A prevailing assumption now dictates that most web projects rely on a standard tech stack: Babel, Webpack, TypeScript, JSX for markup, a CSS-in-JS solution (like styled-components), and one of the dominant JavaScript frameworks (React, Vue, or Angular).

This isn't to suggest a lack of alternatives. The Jamstack approach, emphasizing static site generation, and the rising popularity of Svelte, aiming to simplify front-end complexity, represent notable exceptions. However, the current "diversity" in front-end frameworks is largely superficial. Underlying mechanisms, such as component-oriented architecture and virtualized DOMs, are remarkably similar across frameworks, with increasing parity between them with each release. This trend suggests a convergence in the coming years, with the best features of frameworks like Svelte potentially integrated into React and vice-versa.

This consolidation raises questions about the future pace of change in JavaScript, CSS, and HTML. Will the core web platform technologies continue their rapid growth, or will demand for new features diminish as developers focus on maximizing existing tools?

Is the front-end development landscape nearing a state of maturity? For years, the expectation has been a cyclical reinvention of the front-end, a perpetual quest for the ultimate framework. Are we approaching that point?

Currently, the community seems to favor stability over rapid change. Proven solutions are highly effective, reducing the incentive to disrupt the status quo. The remarkable achievements of existing front-end tools and frameworks, born from years of collective effort, might have reached a level of maturity where further radical change is less desirable.

Launching a competitor to React or Vue, or challenging TypeScript's dominance, appears a daunting task. The major players have captured the attention of millions of developers globally, weathering the intense period of rapid change over the past five years. We're now settling on a smaller set of powerful options sufficient for most development needs. These solutions may not be perfect, but they're undeniably approaching, at least, local optima.

The challenges of 2020 may have also contributed to a desire for stability and predictability, influencing technology choices.

For nearly two decades, my focus has been on embracing change in web technology. However, I'm reconsidering that stance, leaning towards the predictability of inertia. The default assumption should be to leverage existing, proven solutions rather than constantly searching for the next big thing.

What's your prediction?

1. Regarding TypeScript, I can attest to this; I've been working on an alternative for over a year!

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