The gap between China and the United States in quantum computers

Unlike the United States, Europe and other countries, China has recognized and studied quantum technology early, and its research on quantum computers has just started.

The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan"-oriented major project (Super "973") launched by the Ministry of Science and Technology in 2011 requires the realization of a 3-bit quantum computer in 2015. chip. Guo Guoping said that this goal has been achieved so far, and the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" key research and development plan "Semiconductor Quantum Chip Research" launched requires the acquisition of a quantum chip with a quality factor of 1,000 and a number of 6 bits by 2020. (Recommended learning: PHP video tutorial)

"This goal is still a long way from a usable quantum computer, but we must do it step by step." Guo Guoping said.

Although the number of qubits is not an absolute indicator to measure quantum computing hardware technology, before a universal quantum computer is successfully developed, this indicator does have the value of distinguishing between high and low levels. In Google’s “quantum supremacy” plan mentioned above, scientists in the field generally expect that it will reach 40 to 50 qubits in the “quantum computer” next year or the year after.

However, even if it reaches this level, it is still far from a truly universal quantum computer.

In Guo Guangcan’s view, for a practical standard quantum computer, in addition to the fault tolerance threshold and quality factor (Q value) that must meet the corresponding requirements (it is still far from the minimum requirements), the number of logical bits must reach About 200, and if calculated based on the fact that at least 5 physical bits are needed to encode one logical bit, the number of qubits must reach at least 1,000.

And this is just a visible and easily perceptible gap. Ying Mingsheng, professor of the Department of Computer Science at Tsinghua University and Yangtze River Scholar, pointed out that China lacks one of the "two legs" (hardware and software) of quantum computer development - quantum software, which will make China passive in the international competition of quantum computing for a long time. state.

Only when you are lame do you know that the road is long. Ying Mingsheng said that the reason why the United States is making rapid progress is that it has a clear layout and concentrated efforts in quantum computer hardware, software and even applications. "Hardware is the foundation of computers, but software is the soul of computing science. If quantum computers are to be developed, software must also keep up."

"There is indeed a big gap between us and the United States. This gap is firstly a gap in research level, which can be seen. The second one is a gap in research team and strength. These are actually There are also obvious gaps, and this is our current situation. " Guo Guangcan said that the perfect layout of the US government and enterprises in the field of quantum computers has risen to the level of national behavior, which China should learn from.

It’s unclear who will win

Despite the huge gap, Guo Guangcan sees that the development of domestic quantum computing has “very good momentum.”

"I think the domestic momentum is developing very well, especially the superconducting route. Originally there was not even a single qubit, but now there are 5 or 9, and several companies are working on it. Raw materials have also shifted from relying on foreign imports to being provided by the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the material properties are also improving." Guo Guangcan said that although the levels of countries vary, no country has actually developed a universal quantum computer. "It is still unclear who will win. We still have a chance."

To seize this opportunity, Guo Guangcan believes that China needs to “strengthen its internal strength” in two aspects. On the one hand, the country must strengthen its layout in the development of quantum computers, elevate it to a national strategic level, organize all aspects of power, and support the development of quantum computers. "For example, we need to solve the assessment problem of hardware R&D talents."

"On the other hand, our country must cultivate young talents in the field of quantum computing. The younger generation is very important. We must not only focus on current research, but also look to the future, and talents are the future." Guo Guangcan said, "Even if interested young people do not engage in relevant research and development work in the end, they can still be trained to be people who can use quantum computers." He said that in the next step, he will consider cultivating the youth team in a suitable way.

Ying Mingsheng coincides with Guo Guangcan on the issue of talent training. "Quantum software is different from other fields of computing science. It is difficult to develop in the short term and requires a long-term, cooperative process." Ying Mingsheng said, "Disciplines such as quantum physics and computing science should join forces to train a group of people. Even if We have not won the final breakthrough, and we will not be too passive when quantum information technology becomes a technological trend."

Unlike the United States and Europe and other countries that have understood and researched quantum technology early, China has Computer research has just begun. Although the development momentum of the domestic quantum computing field is good, there is still much to be done. On the one hand, the country must strengthen its layout in the development of quantum computers and elevate it to a national strategic level; on the other hand, the cultivation of young talents in the field of quantum computing is also crucial.

As for when real quantum computers will appear, Bill Gates believes that quantum computers are expected to be used in cloud computing within 10 years; the "Quantum Manifesto" drafted by European scientists predicts that general-purpose quantum computers may be To be built by 2035. The answer given by Chinese researchers is: it will be realized in as soon as 10 or 15 years. By then, replacing traditional PCs will no longer be a dream.

my country’s scientific research on quantum communication started later than abroad, but its large-scale commercial applications are at the forefront of the world. In the second half of 2016, a number of quantum communications projects were launched, including the Shanghai Quantum Communications Metropolitan Area Network, the world's longest quantum communications intercity backbone network connecting Beijing and Shanghai with a total length of 2,000 kilometers, and the world's first quantum communications scientific experiment satellite. Major projects have been implemented, and the country has significantly increased its investment in quantum communications. Quantum communications have been included in the strategic industries cultivated and developed by the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", reflecting the country's determination to focus on the development of quantum communications. Facing this huge market, capital investment is gradually increasing, and the industry chain will become more mature. Concept stocks such as Zhejiang Oriental, Ningbo Construction Engineering, Kehua Hengsheng, China Information, and Hengtong Optoelectronics in the secondary market are also worthy of attention.

Currently, my country invests 400-600 billion yuan in public network construction every year. Based on the 2% public network replacement level, the annual market size is around 8-12 billion. Some industry insiders said that as quantum communications are fully rolled out in metropolitan area networks, intercity networks, and wide area networks in the future, the application scenarios of quantum communications will be extended from current financial, government affairs, military and other customers to personal life. By 2030, quantum communications The market is expected to reach the level of 100 billion.

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