As soon as next month! GPT-4, the strongest language model on the planet, will be released soon? CEO hints: Passed the Turing test

As the most anticipated AI model in history, Is GPT-4 really coming?

# In the past few days, a column by AI analyst Romero quickly "exploded" the entire AI technology circle as soon as it was released.

He said, "GPT-4 is almost ready and will be released at some point between December this year and February next year".

There are even rumors that GPT-4 has advanced to the point of being "no different from humans", even 「passed the Turing test」. Compared with before, the introduction cost of enterprises will also drop significantly.

Currently, there is no model in the entire AI industry that can "officially and definitely" pass the Turing test. Therefore, the launch of GPT-4 is likely to become another great achievement in the history of AI. One year.

As soon as next month, the fourth generation model is coming soon?

In June 2020, OpenAI, a world-class artificial intelligence research institution founded by Elon Musk and others, released the third-generation generative pre-training model GPT-3.

GPT-3 has 175 billion parameters, which is 100 times that of the previous generation model GPT-2. It also improves the previous parameter record of similar NLP models by 10 times.

The release of GPT-3 is regarded as a major development by the industry, and has therefore been listed as one of the "Top Ten Breakthrough Technologies in 2021" by "MIT Technology Review".

The huge performance leap has also given everyone high hopes for OpenAI’s next-generation generative pre-training model.

If GPT-4 improves GPT-3 as much as GPT-3 does GPT-2, then this will be an improvement close to 100 times.

But in the past two years, OpenAI has always been very "shy" when talking about GPT-4, and it can even be said that it has remained silent most of the time. We can only "get a glimpse" from the sporadic information that management inadvertently revealed.

The last time news about GPT-4 leaked out, it dates back to the beginning of this year.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said at the time that GPT-4 was expected to be released between July and August this year.

However, recently, American technology blogger Robert Scoble said:

"Disruption is coming. GPT- 4 is better than anyone expected. It is one of several major AI products due to launch next year."

Cambrian AI analyst Alberto Romero ( Alberto Romero also quoted a tweet from Silicon Valley engineer Igor Baikov in September in a column in "Algorithm Bridge":

" OpenAI is already training GPT-4 and plans to release it between December and February."

In addition, the first-generation GPT, which contains 117 million parameters, was released in 2018; In 2019 and 2020, we ushered in GPT-2 and GPT-3 respectively.

OpenAI, which has been "reserved" for more than a year, may be time to introduce something new.

"I wouldn't be surprised if GPT-4 can pass the Turing test"

Regarding GPT-4, a representative of an AI startup company analyzed that, "GPT -4 easily passed the Turing test, or indirectly indicates that the performance is high enough to have the potential to pass the Turing test."

A recent tweet from OpenAI CEO Altman, This rumor seems to have been confirmed from the side.

He uploaded a photo of Star Wars with a sentence:

"Don't settle for the 'techno-horror' you created" And pride, the ability to pass the Turing test is powerless in front of the "Force"."

This is an imitation of the classic lines of Darth Vader, the famous character in the movie Star Wars series.

Romero also said in the article:

"If GPT-4 can fully pass Turing test, I wouldn't be surprised."

The Turing test is a test designed to understand how naturally computers communicate with humans.

Currently, there is no AI model in the AI ​​community that has "formally and definitely" passed the Turing test.

Although some artificial intelligence models claimed to have passed the Turing test in the past, because its standards and rules were not clear, they used some "blind spots" and did not pass the test overall. test.

If the rumors are true and GPT-4 can pass the Turing test without restrictions, then it will become a well-deserved"First in history 》.

Training costs are significantly reduced and commercialization potential is huge

There is another reason why the AI ​​circle has paid widespread attention to GPT-4: it is said that GPT-4 will be introduced into commercial services in the future The actual threshold will be much lower than the existing GPT-3 model.

At the same time, it is expected that companies that are unable to use AI technology due to the huge cost and required infrastructure will also have more room to use GPT-4.

According to Romero’s prediction, OpenAI will focus its next-generation models more on optimizing data processing rather than parameter size, so the scale of GPT-4 is likely Similar to GPT-3.

So far, advances in artificial intelligence technology and expansion of model sizes have been carried out together, but adding features to lightweight models in the near future is considered promising.

GPT-4’s model training costs are expected to be lower than before. "The training cost of GPT-4 is expected to be significantly lower than that of GPT-3," Romero wrote.

As we all know, GPT-3 costs hundreds of thousands per class just in the learning phase. This is why large companies cannot easily release GPT-3-based artificial intelligence services for ordinary users.

In South Korea, only SK Telecom’s personal artificial intelligence service “Adot” is based on GPT-3.

Romero also said that the cost of each training of GPT-4 is expected to drop below $1 million.

An ICT company official said:

"If all the known information is true, then there will be several types of products next year. Chatbot services. They are so natural that users don’t know whether they are talking to a human or a computer."

"Artificial intelligence services may increase."

Netizens: Need to be wary

Regarding OpenAI’s next-generation “Thanos”-level model, many netizens have expressed that they are “too much looking forward to it.”

However, Gary Marcus, a well-known AI scholar and founder and CEO of Robust.AI, once again badmouthed The future of GPT-4.

He said on social media: "There are rumors that GPT-4 is coming. Here is my prediction: It will still have serious problems of fiction/misinformation, toxicity and bias."

Marcus is well known for his concern for the AI ​​industry, but he has also expressed many opinions such as "deep learning hits a wall" and "GPT-3 is completely meaningless", opposing the hype of AI.

Some netizens also expressed concerns about the potential "power" of the next-generation model:

"If this is true, Then 'his' IQ has reached at least 100."

"This will be one of the greatest technological revolutions in history, but society needs to pay attention to it immediately. Because 'he' 』The applicable potential is unlimited.」

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