How can AI help us prepare for climate adaptation?

• Climate change promises to be a major business disruption over the next few decades According to estimates, the potential financial impact of climate change on the U.S. economy alone will reach trillions of dollars.
• To adapt to this new reality, more granular climate insights need to be generated to enable stakeholders to take a more data-driven approach to climate adaptation.
• Due to the scale of these data and the complexity of climate phenomena, artificial intelligence must be leveraged to support early warning systems and forecast models that are more accessible and optimize reaction times.

Despite climate mitigation efforts to keep global warming below 1.5°C, many experts predict global warming of 3.5°C by the turn of the next century. This warming world is bringing floods, wildfires and huge losses of life, with more damage expected in the coming decades.

Therefore, it is crucial to focus on large-scale climate adaptation and mitigation. We must strengthen our ability to adapt to current and expected climate events, using actionable climate insights to inform decision-making. The use of artificial intelligence (AI) for its climate modeling capabilities is fundamental to this, but we are seeing more AI innovation focused on climate mitigation, such as using AI to measure and reduce emissions. This innovation gap needs to be addressed, and the development of responsible artificial intelligence must be accelerated to gain actionable climate insights.

This means governments and businesses must fundamentally rethink their approaches to climate adaptation. Artificial intelligence is key, and a recent BCG survey of more than 1,000 public and private sector executives found that 87% see AI as an important tool in combating climate change.

Here’s how artificial intelligence could be the key to climate adaptation:

Using artificial intelligence to build climate resilience

About 3.3 to 3.6 billion people around the world live in areas where climate change is high Risk areas where we have seen or will see a significant increase in natural disasters, and this is likely to increase as the climate crisis intensifies. This year's extreme weather events, such as droughts, hurricanes, wildfires and floods, have shown us that adapting our societies to the dangers of climate change is a monumental task.

When modeling extreme weather events, a large number of variables must be included, and AI is well-positioned to model this complexity because of its ability to collect, complete, and analyze large data sets. It can be used in early warning systems and long-term predictive modeling of local climate events, enabling stakeholders to take a more data-driven approach to climate adaptation.

For example, Destination Earth, led by the European Space Agency, aims to create an artificial intelligence-based model of the Earth to monitor and predict interactions between climate phenomena, such as drought and human activity. Once in place, global policymakers will have greater access to climate insights to inform their adaptation efforts.

Using artificial intelligence for wildfire prediction and prevention is another great example. It enables interactive mapping of high-risk areas and can track fire development in near real-time via fire spread algorithms, informing optimal resource allocation and long-term strategies for sustainable forest management. With the global average annual cost of wildfires being around $50 billion, this should be welcomed as AI could make fighting wildfires more efficient and cost-effective. To support this, the World Economic Forum has launched FireAid, which is working to build real AI models and pilot them in countries such as Turkey.

These latest developments in using artificial intelligence for climate adaptation have the potential to make climate insights more accessible to all stakeholders. Something that is needed globally, especially in the Global South where access to technology is less, is also where the risk is highest. Artificial intelligence therefore has the potential to reduce the mismatch between adaptation needs and technology acquisition. To support this, more must be done to enhance equitable access to and participation in AI development for climate change adaptation.

AI enables business continuity in the face of climate risk

Climate change is expected to be a major business disruptor, with estimates of its potential financial impact on the U.S. economy alone Just trillions of dollars. ​Businesses will face major supply chain and production disruptions in the coming decades. Despite this, only 33% of business leaders incorporate climate risk into their business strategy.

Artificial intelligence can play an important role in predicting where these business disruptions are likely to occur, detailing operational vulnerabilities caused by climate change. By extracting complex data sources in a visual risk graph, business leaders can understand how the complex dynamics of climate change can negatively impact business assets and better withstand shocks.

For example, Esri, a leader in geographic information systems (GIS) software, is using digital twins to model climate risks. A digital twin is a digital copy of an operation or physical asset. Leveraging data and artificial intelligence, they can assess the vulnerability of critical business assets, such as flood vulnerabilities, in near real-time. This allows weaknesses to be addressed and strengthened in advance, and preventive maintenance to be performed. But, as with AI for government climate adaptation, corporate access to such AI tools needs to be rigorously evaluated. Very few organizations are taking full advantage of artificial intelligence to adapt to climate change. More international collaboration is needed to sustain the development of these applications, as well as access to this technology, to enable all relevant stakeholders to gain actionable climate adaptation insights.

The Road Ahead

These are two emerging central themes of how artificial intelligence can be used for climate adaptation. Many other promising applications are emerging and must be accelerated, such as using AI to address climate risks in financial products or using AI for pre-emptive humanitarian work.

Artificial intelligence for climate change adaptation is in its infancy, and many efforts are using advanced data analytics. To responsibly harness the true potential of AI for climate adaptation, such as using synthetic data and predictive modelling, key barriers must be collectively addressed.

Currently, the widespread use of AI in climate adaptation is limited by data compatibility, access to existing and new AI and machine learning (ML) models, access to computing resources to run these complex models, and access to actionable The insights and domain technical expertise impede such barriers and management expertise to make appropriate policy decisions.

Fortunately, the international will exists to collaborate on this work and close the innovation gap to accelerate the responsible use of AI for climate adaptation at scale and reduce the risk of maladaptation.

To this end, the World Economic Forum’s Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Platform is exploring what role the World Economic Forum can play in accelerating the use of artificial intelligence to combat climate change. This is supported by a consensus-based governance framework, toolkit and best practice use cases. It will demonstrate a data-driven AI roadmap and climate modeling approach for public and private sector agencies to address the social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change.

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