Decision-making process of XGBoost machine learning model

Algorithms using XGBoost often achieve good results in Kaggle and other data science competitions, so they are popular. This article uses a specific data set to analyze the prediction process of the XGBoost machine learning model. By using visualization methods to display the results, we can better understand the prediction process of the model.

As the industrial applications of machine learning continue to develop, understanding, explaining and defining the working principles of machine learning models seems to have become an increasingly obvious trend. For non-deep learning type machine learning classification problems, XGBoost is the most popular library. Because XGBoost scales well to large datasets and supports multiple languages, it is particularly useful in commercial environments. For example, XGBoost makes it easy to train a model in Python and deploy the model to a Java production environment.

Although XGBoost can achieve high accuracy, the process of how XGBoost makes decisions to achieve such high accuracy is still not transparent enough. This lack of transparency can be a serious flaw when results are handed over directly to the client. It is useful to understand why things happen. Companies that turn to applying machine learning to understand their data also need to understand the predictions from the models. This is becoming increasingly important. For example, no one wants a credit agency to use a machine learning model to predict a user’s creditworthiness without being able to explain the process by which those predictions were made.

Another example is if our machine learning model says that a marriage profile and a birth profile are related to the same person (profile association task), but the date on the profile implies that the parties to the marriage are separate is a very old person and a very young person, we might question why the model correlates them. In examples such as this, it is extremely valuable to understand why the model made the prediction it did. The result could be that the model takes into account the uniqueness of the name and location and makes the correct prediction. But it's also possible that the model's features don't properly account for the age gap on the profiles. In this case, understanding the model's predictions can help us find ways to improve model performance.

In this article, we will introduce some techniques to better understand the prediction process of XGBoost. This allows us to harness the power of gradient boosting while still understanding the model's decision-making process.

To explain these techniques, we will use the Titanic dataset. This dataset has information about each Titanic passenger (including whether the passenger survived). Our goal is to predict whether a passenger will survive, and to understand the process of making that prediction. Even using this data, we can see the importance of understanding model decisions. Imagine we have a dataset of passengers from recent shipwrecks. The purpose of building such a predictive model is not actually to predict the outcome itself, but understanding the prediction process can help us learn how to maximize survivors of the unexpected.

<span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">pandas</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">as</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">pd</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">from</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">xgboost</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">XGBClassifier</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">from</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">sklearn</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">model_selection</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">train_test_split</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">from</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">sklearn</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">metrics</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">accuracy_score</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">operator</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">matplotlib</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">pyplot</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">as</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">plt</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">seaborn</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">as</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">sns</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">lime</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">lime_tabular</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">from</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">sklearn</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">pipeline</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">Pipeline</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">from</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">sklearn</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">preprocessing</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">Imputer</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">numpy</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">as</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">np</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">from</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">sklearn</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">grid_search</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">import</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">GridSearchCV</span><br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">%</span><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">matplotlib</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">inline</span>

The first thing we need to do is look at our data, which you can find on Kaggle (https://www.kaggle.com/c/titanic/data). After getting the data set, we will simply clean the data. Namely:

• Clear names and passenger IDs
• Convert categorical variables into dummy variables
• Fill and remove data with median

These cleaning techniques are very simple. The goal of this article is not to discuss data cleaning, but to explain XGBoost, so these are quick and reasonable cleanings to get the model trained.

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">data</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">pd</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">read_csv</span>(<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">"./data/titantic/train.csv"</span>)<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">data</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">Survived</span><br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">data</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">drop</span>([<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">"Survived"</span>, <span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">"Name"</span>, <span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">"PassengerId"</span>], <span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">1</span>)<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">pd</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">get_dummies</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X</span>)

Now let us divide the data set into training set and test set.

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_train</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_test</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y_train</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y_test</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">train_test_split</span>(<br> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">test_size</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">0.33</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">random_state</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">42</span>)

And build a training pipeline with a small number of hyperparameter tests.

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">pipeline</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">Pipeline</span>(<br>[(<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">'imputer'</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">Imputer</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">strategy</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">'median'</span>)),<br>(<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">'model'</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">XGBClassifier</span>())])<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">parameters</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(111, 66, 193); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">dict</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">model__max_depth</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span>[<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">3</span>, <span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">5</span>, <span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">7</span>],<br> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">model__learning_rate</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span>[<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">.01</span>, <span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">.1</span>],<br> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">model__n_estimators</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span>[<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">100</span>, <span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">500</span>])<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">cv</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">GridSearchCV</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">pipeline</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">param_grid</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">parameters</span>)<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">cv</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">fit</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_train</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y_train</span>)

Then check the test results. For simplicity, we will use the same metric as Kaggle: accuracy.

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">test_predictions</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">cv</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">predict</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_test</span>)<br><span style="color: rgb(111, 66, 193); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">print</span>(<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">"Test Accuracy: {}"</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">format</span>(<br> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">accuracy_score</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y_test</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">test_predictions</span>)))

Test Accuracy: 0.8101694915254237

So far we have got a pretty good accuracy rate, ranking in the top 500 among about 9000 competitors on Kaggle. There is therefore room for further improvement, but this will be left as an exercise to the reader.

We continue the discussion about understanding what the model learns. A common method is to use the feature importance provided by XGBoost. The higher the level of feature importance, the greater the feature's contribution to improving model predictions. Next we will rank the features using the importance parameter and compare the relative importance.

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">fi</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(111, 66, 193); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">list</span>(<span style="color: rgb(111, 66, 193); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">zip</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">columns</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">cv</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">best_estimator_</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">named_steps</span>[<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">'model'</span>].<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">feature_importances_</span>))<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">fi</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">sort</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">key</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">operator</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">itemgetter</span>(<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">1</span>), <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">reverse</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">True</span>)<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">top_10</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">fi</span>[:<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">10</span>]<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">x</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> [<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">x</span>[<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">0</span>] <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">for</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">x</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">in</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">top_10</span>]<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> [<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">x</span>[<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">1</span>] <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">for</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">x</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">in</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">top_10</span>]<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">top_10_chart</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">sns</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">barplot</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">x</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y</span>)<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">plt</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">setp</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">top_10_chart</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">get_xticklabels</span>(), <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">rotation</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">90</span>)

As can be seen from the above figure, ticket price and age are very important features. We can further look at the distribution of survival/death related to fares:

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">sns</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">barplot</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y_train</span>, <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_train</span>[<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">'Fare'</span>])

We can clearly see that the average fare for those who survived compared to those who perished Much higher, so it might be reasonable to consider fare as an important feature.

特征重要性可能是理解一般的特征重要性的不错方法。假如出现了这样的特例，即模型预测一个高票价的乘客无法获得生还，则我们可以得出高票价并不必然导致生还，接下来我们将分析可能导致模型得出该乘客无法生还的其它特征。

这种个体层次上的分析对于生产式机器学习系统可能非常有用。考虑其它例子，使用模型预测是否可以某人一项贷款。我们知道信用评分将是模型的一个很重要的特征，但是却出现了一个拥有高信用评分却被模型拒绝的客户，这时我们将如何向客户做出解释？又该如何向管理者解释？

幸运的是，近期出现了华盛顿大学关于解释任意分类器的预测过程的研究。他们的方法称为 LIME，已经在 GitHub 上开源（https://github.com/marcotcr/lime）。本文不打算对此展开讨论，可以参见论文（https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.04938.pdf）

接下来我们尝试在模型中应用 LIME。基本上，首先需要定义一个处理训练数据的解释器（我们需要确保传递给解释器的估算训练数据集正是将要训练的数据集）：

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_train_imputed</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">cv</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">best_estimator_</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">named_steps</span>[<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">'imputer'</span>].<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">transform</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_train</span>)<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">explainer</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">lime</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">lime_tabular</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">LimeTabularExplainer</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_train_imputed</span>,<br> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">feature_names</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_train</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">columns</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">tolist</span>(),<br> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">class_names</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span>[<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">"Not Survived"</span>, <span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">"Survived"</span>],<br> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">discretize_continuous</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">True</span>)

随后你必须定义一个函数，它以特征数组为变量，并返回一个数组和每个类的概率：

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">model</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">cv</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">best_estimator_</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">named_steps</span>[<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">'model'</span>]<br><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">def</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">xgb_prediction</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_array_in</span>):<br> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">if</span> <span style="color: rgb(111, 66, 193); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">len</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_array_in</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">shape</span>) <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"> <span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">2</span>:<br> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_array_in</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">np</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">expand_dims</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_array_in</span>, <span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">0</span>)<br> <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">return</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">model</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">predict_proba</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_array_in</span>)</span>

最后，我们传递一个示例，让解释器使用你的函数输出特征数和标签：

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_test_imputed</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">cv</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">best_estimator_</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">named_steps</span>[<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">'imputer'</span>].<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">transform</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_test</span>)<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">exp</span> <span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">explainer</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">explain_instance</span>(<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_test_imputed</span>[<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">1</span>],<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">xgb_prediction</span>,<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">num_features</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">5</span>,<br> <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">top_labels</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">1</span>)<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">exp</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">show_in_notebook</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">show_table</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">True</span>,<br><span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">show_all</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">=</span><span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">False</span>)

在这里我们有一个示例，76% 的可能性是不存活的。我们还想看看哪个特征对于哪个类贡献最大，重要性又如何。例如，在 Sex = Female 时，生存几率更大。让我们看看柱状图：

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">sns</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">barplot</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_train</span>[<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">'Sex_female'</span>], <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y_train</span>)

所以这看起来很有道理。如果你是女性，这就大大提高了你在训练数据中存活的几率。所以为什么预测结果是「未存活」？看起来 Pclass =2.0 大大降低了存活率。让我们看看：

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">sns</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">barplot</span>(<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">X_train</span>[<span style="color: rgb(102, 153, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">'Pclass'</span>], <span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y_train</span>)

看起来 Pclass 等于 2 的存活率还是比较低的，所以我们对于自己的预测结果有了更多的理解。看看 LIME 上展示的 top5 特征，看起来这个人似乎仍然能活下来，让我们看看它的标签：

<span style="color: rgb(89, 89, 89); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">y_test</span>.<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">values</span>[<span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">0</span>]<span style="color: rgb(215, 58, 73); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">>>></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 92, 197); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: none 0% 0% / auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);">1</span>

这个人确实活下来了，所以我们的模型有错！感谢 LIME，我们可以对问题原因有一些认识：看起来 Pclass 可能需要被抛弃。这种方式可以帮助我们，希望能够找到一些改进模型的方法。

本文为读者提供了一个简单有效理解 XGBoost 的方法。希望这些方法可以帮助你合理利用 XGBoost，让你的模型能够做出更好的推断。

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