2023 Zhongguancun Forum｜Robots: Stepping out of the virtual world

At the 2023 shareholder meeting, Tesla CEO Musk demonstrated the latest features of the humanoid robot Optimus (Optimus Prime). On the same day, Fu Chunjiang, UBTECH’s vice president and head of the humanoid robot division, continued to promote their company’s own humanoid robot product, Walker, to others.

"The market demand for humanoid robots will exceed that of electric vehicles, and may be worth tens of billions of dollars." "Humanoid robots can be given a 'physical carrier' for general artificial intelligence, breaking the boundaries between virtuality and reality." Cross-border Tesla There is a crossover between La and robot veteran Youbixuan.

A week later, feedback from the capital level once again polished this "jewel at the top of the manufacturing crown". From May 23 to 24, many robot concept stocks such as Yum Intelligent reached their daily limit. Many institutions believe that the robot industry will enter a new stage with rapid increase in penetration rate. On the technical side, new achievements in artificial intelligence and mechanical technology have given robots more carriers; on the application side, 17 departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have jointly issued the "Robotics" Application Action Implementation Plan (hereinafter referred to as the "Implementation Plan"), and many The robot "ensemble" in "The Wandering Earth 2" is becoming reality.

AI in the physical world

"We are machines, produced from the assembly line like bottle caps. My personalized existence is just an illusion. I am just a representative of one model."

In the 1960s, science fiction genius Philip K. Dick wrote the novel "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?" "" created a technological life in which humans and machines coexist. In the early 1980s, the movie "Blade Runner" adapted from the novel was released and became a classic in the history of science fiction movies.

In 2023, "Blade Runner" is still providing people with technological inspiration. The Cybertruck (electric pickup truck owned by Tesla) that serves as the background for Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus uses this movie as its muse. Ever since the concept of robots began to emerge, the discussion about humanoids and intelligence has never been so heated for this industry.

Tesla’s strategy of building robots has been public for a long time. In 2021, Musk only gave a concept map. Since there was no real object, he could only let the staff put on special clothes and dance as robots. The first appearance of the first-generation Optimus in 2022 was quite "original", with wiring harnesses, actuators and other parts exposed, but it can already complete actions such as walking slowly, saying hello, and raising both hands above its head. Recently, in a video released by Tesla, Optimus can not only walk autonomously, but also detect the surrounding environment, use sensors to replicate the movements of real people in real time, and perform tasks such as sorting items.

When you make a humanoid robot, you need more courage. Zhou Jian, founder, chairman and CEO of UBTECH, recalled, “When UBTECH was established in 2012 and began to develop and design humanoid robots, China was still blank in the field of humanoid robots, but we were determined to break into this field. 'No man's land'. Among all robot research and development, humanoid robots are recognized as the most challenging in the industry. They involve multiple complex technologies and require long-term research and development accumulation, and cannot be achieved overnight."

It took UBTECH five years to develop from a prototype with 12 degrees of freedom to a Walker X with 41 degrees of freedom. In 2016, the UBTECH humanoid robot prototype was launched. It has a walking speed of 1km/h and can achieve omnidirectional walking, static up and down, and slope sway plane balance. UBTECH launched the first generation of Walker in 2017-2018 and updated it in 2019. The second generation of Walker. By 2021, Walker The appearance is also getting smarter.

Talking about the relationship between humanoid robots and general AI, Fu Chunjiang summarized three points: it has the ability to interact with the physical world, thereby generating labor value and emotional value; it can help general AI perceive and understand physical laws; it is more in line with the human mind , the interaction is more natural.

If Musk’s prediction is realized in the future, and each person is equipped with 1-2 humanoid robots, the global demand for humanoid robots will reach 10 billion-20 billion units. He also believes that much of Tesla's long-term value comes from Optimus. Liu Haibo, chief analyst of manufacturing industry at CITIC Securities, and his team are also confident in humanoid robots. He believes that under the catalysis of industrial transformation events such as humanoid robots and ChatGPT, the robot industry has become the focus of the market. He also emphasized that "humanoid robots are general-purpose robots that will Replace labor in various scenarios such as factories, service industries, and homes."

Support the manufacturing industry to move towards mid-to-high-end

Application scenarios are also the focus of attention at the national level. On February 6, the "Implementation Plan" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 17 departments proposed that by 2025, the density of manufacturing robots will double compared with 2020. Among the ten key application areas recommended to focus on, manufacturing is ranked first. indivual.

According to the "Implementation Plan", it is necessary to develop new robot products for welding, assembly, spraying, handling, grinding and polishing, etc., and accelerate the application expansion of robotic production equipment into related fields. Develop professional and customized solutions and software and hardware products, accumulate experience and knowledge such as model libraries and process software packages, deeply integrate robot control software and integrated application systems, and promote the development of automobiles, electronics, machinery, light industry, textiles, building materials, Pharmaceuticals and other industries that have formed large-scale applications, sanitary ware, ceramics, photovoltaics, smelting, casting, sheet metal, hardware, furniture and other subdivisions, glaze spraying, trimming, polishing, grinding, welding, spraying, handling, palletizing and other key link applications.

The Megvii four-way vehicle exhibited at this Zhongguancun Forum is aimed at the transportation link. “When building Jingxin Pharmaceutical’s intelligent intensive warehouse in Inner Mongolia, we calculated an account for our customers. If we use a flexible and intelligent four-way vehicle solution to replace the traditional logistics automation solution, we will save about 1 million yuan in equipment purchase costs at one time. , the civil construction investment cost is reduced by 30%, the electricity bill is saved by hundreds of thousands of yuan per year, and the maintenance and spare parts costs are saved by 100,000 yuan per year," Li Shuai, head of product business solutions for Megvii Robots, told reporters. From an equipment perspective, 4 four-way vehicles are enough to replace the need to use 45 chain conveyors, 11 roller conveyors and 28 lifting transfer machines.

The industries mentioned in the "Implementation Plan" are also the main directions of Aobo's robot applications. Aobo has been implemented in industrial fields such as automobiles, 3C, construction, welding, hardware and home appliances, and mechanical equipment. Take the automotive glass gluing scene as an example. Previously, this project mainly relied on manual gluing, and it was difficult to ensure accuracy and quality. Using Aobo collaborative robots, human-machine collaborative work can be deployed quickly, covering an area of ​​only 1 square meter, and it can also ensure uniform glue application speed, and the glue type control accuracy is ±0.5 mm," Zhang Dong, vice president of Aobo, told reporters, Since the specific project was put into use in August 2019, the robot has been running efficiently for 16 hours a day, in good operating condition, and can completely replace labor.

Integrate into the social and people’s livelihood areas

In addition to the field of economic development, medical health, elderly care services, education, commercial community services, safety emergency and extreme environment applications are the four social and people's livelihood directions mentioned in the "Implementation Plan".

Specific to elderly care services, it is necessary to develop robot products to assist the elderly and disabled, such as disability assistance, bathing assistance, toilet care, rehabilitation training, housework, emotional companionship, entertainment and leisure, and security monitoring. Accelerate the application of new technologies such as multi-modal quantitative assessment, multi-information fusion emotion recognition, flexible adaptive human-computer interaction, and artificial intelligence assistance in the field of elderly care services, and actively promote the application of exoskeleton robots, elderly care robots, etc. in elderly care service scenarios. Application verification. Relevant experimental bases in the field of elderly care are encouraged to use robot applications as an important part of experimental demonstrations, and to develop and promote new technologies, products and models for assisting the elderly through science and technology. Research and formulate application standards for robot technology to assist the elderly and the disabled, promote the integration of robots into different scenarios and key areas of elderly care services, and improve the level of smart elderly care services.

During the exchange with reporters, Liu Yuxiang, the head of Orion Star’s business strategy, spent a lot of time talking about Orion Star’s experience in elderly care services. “Bao Xiaomi mini can meet 7*[1] 24-hour blood pressure, blood sugar, and blood oxygen requirements. , ECG and other daily testing needs, generate health reports to synchronize children and related institutions, and provide reference guidance. It also contains a health knowledge base, and the elderly can answer questions through voice interaction. If the elderly are uncomfortable, they can call remotely online. You can contact the doctor for consultation."

The delivery service robot Lucky Leopard independently developed by Orion Star has now gone abroad and is "on duty" in a high-end retirement community in the United States. It can realize functions such as medicine delivery, catering delivery, catering recycling, disinfection tool delivery, and health promotion.

Currently, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation are accelerating. Artificial intelligence, 5G, new energy, new materials, etc. are deeply integrated with robotic technology. The robot industry is ushering in a window period for upgrading and leapfrog development.

The "China Robot Industry Development Report" shows that China's robot market size will be US$17.4 billion in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 22% from 2017 to 2022. Among them, the industrial robot market is expected to reach US$8.7 billion in 2022, the service robot market is expected to reach US$6.5 billion, and the special robot market is expected to reach US$2.2 billion.

As a production tool, robots have the characteristics of precise and stable operation, and can solve some problems in the production process; as a carrier of emerging technologies, robots are a bridge connecting digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and 5G to the manufacturing industry. Currently, the digital economy is in the ascendant, and intelligent, networked, and flexible manufacturing is accelerating. Robots perform well in leveraging, which can not only improve the quality and efficiency of the manufacturing industry, but may also open up new fields and tracks, bringing new opportunities to the development of the manufacturing industry.

Beijing Business Daily reporter Wei Wei

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