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[Electronic Fan Zhiyuan]Actively grasp the Apple MR new product cycle, recommended to pay attention toRongqi Technology/Zhicube/Zhaowei Electromechanical/Gaowei Electronics/Luxun Precision. Optical and display modules account for a high proportion of XR value. Pancake Micro-OLED is expected to become a mainstream solution in the future, focusing on optical & display technology innovation. Historically, major innovations in product cycles determine β, while small innovations in technological iterations bring α. Apple’s industry chain stock price performs better and starts earlier. Apple’s first MR device is expected to be released on June 6, and the second-generation product will be mass-produced in 2025.
[Strategy Ai Xiongfeng/Computer Meng Can/Media Internet Lu Yi]TMT Rise Series (4): AI application fields, from easy to difficult in technical difficulty, can be divided into "helping decision-making, "Assisted creation and substitute execution" three levels. The implementation of AI applications, on the one hand, depends on the investment of companies in the application field (including R&D investment and capital expenditure, etc.), and on the other hand, it also depends on the error tolerance rate of the application field (generally speaking, AI application fields with low trial and error costs are often easier to implement). landing). Computer: Office suites, financial IT, enterprise services and other industries are expected to be the first to be implemented. Media: Gaming, marketing and other industries are expected to be the first to be implemented.
[Macro Zhao Wei & Fixed Income Fan Xinjiang]The May PMI showed that demand continued to weaken, production fell into a contraction range, the traditional cyclical sector was further dragged down, and the operations of small and medium-sized enterprises weakened. Reaffirm the macro perspective: The current problem of insufficient economic demand is still relatively prominent, endogenous dynamism needs to be enhanced, and further policy support is needed. Looking forward, it is necessary to track the progress of the implementation of stabilizing growth policies and possible marginal incremental changes in policies. Fixed income strategy: Fiscal easing credit policy may be expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the pace of special bond issuance and the use of financial tools. The short-term bond market has limited upside space.
[Dianxin Yao Yao]The hydrogen energy business of overseas enterprises has high growth rate, high orders, and high production expansion. The industry is on the eve of a substantial outbreak. It is recommended to pay attention to Shenghui Technology/Huadian Heavy Industry/Billion Lijie Neng/Huaguang Huaneng/Kewei. Overseas hydrogen energy technology accumulation and policy planning are in a leading position. PEM and alkaline electrolyzers are advancing hand in hand, and electrolyzer production capacity has been doubled and expanded. The domestic technical route is mainly based on alkaline electrolyzers, and the guiding ideas are: 1) Upstream is matched with photovoltaic/wind power; 2) Downstream application fields are mainly transportation, chemical industry, industry, and energy storage; 3) Energy and chemical enterprises support the original business Enter the game.
【Pharmaceutical Yuanwei】 First coverage & recommendation Aoxiang Pharmaceutical, is driven by research and development and creates an integrated strategy of "API preparations". The fundamentals of specialty APIs are solid, and production capacity construction has unleashed growth momentum. Relying on rich R&D experience and good international cGMP system, CRO/CDMO/CMO business has become the main growth driver in recent years. Focusing on the domestic and foreign Co-Development model, we will create a new growth pole for the preparation business.
[Social Service Ye Sijia]Continuous RecommendationHuazhu Company,The company achieved revenue of 4.48 billion yuan in 1Q23, 67.1% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.00 billion yuan, turning a loss. Revenue and performance both exceeded expectations. The company's product strength, brand strength, and membership system have strong overall competition, and the demand for accommodation is definitely picking up. With the supply being fully cleared, the focus is on the narrowing of the gap between occupancy rate and pre-epidemic levels, and the possibility of recovery exceeding expectations driven by the elasticity of housing prices in peak seasons.
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Depth of the electronics industry: The industry singularity is approaching, and we must actively grasp the Apple MR new product cycle
fanzhiyuan
Electronic Group
Electronics Chief Analyst
Core point of view:Reviewing history, major innovations in the product cycle of the electronics industry determine beta, while technological iterations and small innovations bring alpha. Looking to the future, Apple’s first MR device is expected to be launched on June 6, 2023 Released, the XR industry is expected to gradually transition from the introduction period to the growth stage. Optical and display modules account for a high proportion of XR value, and the technology is in the continuous iteration stage. MR’s optical module and display module solution selected Pancake Micro-OLED screen , focusing on optical & display technology innovation. From the perspective of business flexibility, actively pay attention to Rongqi Technology, Zhicube, Zhaowei Electromechanical, Gaowei Electronics, and Luxshare Precision.
Risk warning: MR release is delayed; MR sales are lower than expected; industry competition intensifies.
The Rise of TMT Series (4): Which AI applications can be implemented quickly
Ai Xiongfeng
Strategy Group
Chief Strategy Analyst
Core point of view:AI application fields, from easy to difficult in technical difficulty, can be divided into three levels: "assisted decision-making, assisted creation and substitute execution". The implementation of AI applications, on the one hand, depends on the investment of companies in the application field (including R&D investment and capital expenditure, etc.), and on the other hand, it also depends on the error tolerance rate of the application field (generally speaking, AI application fields with low trial and error costs are often easier to implement). landing). Computer: Office suites, financial IT, enterprise services and other industries are expected to be the first to be implemented. Media: Gaming, marketing and other industries are expected to be the first to be implemented.
Risk warning: The economic downturn is greater than expected, the risk of macro liquidity contraction, overseas black swan events, and the implementation of industrial policies are less than expected.
Highly recommented
May PMI comments: Stable demand, time waits not for us
Zhao Wei
Macroeconomic Team
Chief Economist of Guojin Securities
Core point of view:The current problem of insufficient economic demand is still relatively prominent, endogenous dynamism needs to be enhanced, and further policy support is needed. Looking forward, on the one hand, we need to track the progress of the implementation of policies to stabilize growth. We can pay attention to indicators such as the operating rate of major projects and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt. On the other hand, we need to closely track the possible marginal incremental changes in the policy. We can pay attention to quasi-fiscal tools, PSL usage etc.
Risk warning: The effect of policy implementation is not as good as expected, and the idling of funds intensifies.
May PMI comments: Production weakens further, fiscal and credit policies may be expected
fanxinjiang
Fixed Income Group
Chief Analyst of Fixed Income
Core Views: 1. Manufacturing: Both production and demand have fallen back to the contraction range, and there is insufficient internal kinetic energy for economic recovery. 2. Non-manufacturing: Orders and prices have dropped significantly, and the overall prosperity level is still at a relatively high level. 3. Investment strategy: The economic recovery structure is clearly differentiated, fiscal and credit policies may be promising, and the bond market has limited upside space.
Risk warning: Macro policy adjustments exceed expectations; financial management redemption risks.
High growth rate, high orders, and high production expansion, the hydrogen energy industry is on the eve of a substantial explosion
Yao Yao
New Energy Group
Chief Analyst of New Energy
Core point of view:Overseas hydrogen energy technology accumulation and policy planning are in a leading position. The high growth rate, high orders, and high production expansion of the hydrogen energy business reflected in the company's annual report confirm that the hydrogen energy industry has entered the eve of a substantial explosion. , closely tracking overseas situations can provide guidance for domestic hydrogen energy development and investment target selection: 1) The upstream is matched with new energy, photovoltaic/wind power electrolyzers produce hydrogen; 2) The downstream application fields are transportation, chemical industry, industry, and energy storage. Customers are mainly energy chemical and logistics warehousing companies; 3) Energy and chemical companies have joined the business to support their original businesses. Recommend A-share related characteristics targets, Shenghui Technology, Huadian Heavy Industry, Yili Clean Energy, Huaguang Environmental Energy, and Kewell.
Risk warning: Downstream demand is less than expected; R&D and hydrogen production project construction cycles are less than expected; raw material supply-side prices are rising; exchange rate fluctuation risks.
In-depth study of Aoxiang Pharmaceutical Company: R&D drives growth, and the circle of competence of characteristic API companies continues to expand
Yuan Wei
Medical Team
Chief Medical Analyst
Core point of view:The company is driven by research and development and creates an integrated strategy of "API preparations". The fundamentals of specialty APIs are solid, and production capacity construction has unleashed growth momentum. Relying on rich R&D experience and good international cGMP system, CRO/CDMO/CMO business has become the main growth driver in recent years. Focusing on the domestic and foreign Co-Development model, we will create a new growth pole for the preparation business.
Risk Warning: Product R&D and technological innovation risks, policy supervision risks, environmental protection risks, production safety risks, exchange rate fluctuation risks, and restricted stock lifting risks.
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Huazhu Company Comments: Q1 performance exceeded expectations, looking forward to the sustainability of recovery
Ye Sijia/Su Chen
Social Service Group
Social Service Researcher
Core point of view:The company achieved revenue of 4.48 billion/67.1% in 1Q23, adjusted EBITDA of 1.65 billion/turned a loss, and adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.00 billion/turned a loss. Both revenue and performance exceeded expectations. Q2 revenue is expected to grow by 51% to 55%, and we continue to be optimistic about recovery capabilities. We believe that the company's product matrix continues to upgrade and expand (such as the newly released Orange 3.0 products, mid-to-high-end business brand Intercity accelerates store opening), member stickiness (1Q23 CRS accounted for 62%, an increase of 15.0pct compared with 1Q19), and digital capabilities to comprehensively compete better , coupled with the arrival of the holiday peak season in May and June, it is expected that RevPAR's short-term repair ability and medium- and long-term improvement sustainability will be supported.
Risk warning: The risk of accommodation demand not recovering as expected, European inflation risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, etc.
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