The concept of humanoid robots has exploded. Can you buy it?

Why are humanoid robots soaring?

Since June, the downstream applications of artificial intelligence have taken on a new direction of speculation. The concept of humanoid robots has continued to explode, with collective daily limits appearing many times.

Among them, Shuanghuan Transmission's lowest price was 21.77 yuan on June 8, and the highest today was 35.08 yuan, with the largest cumulative increase reaching 61.14%; Zhongma Transmission has reached its daily limit for 5 consecutive days; Southern Precision has also reached its daily limit for 4 consecutive days. (Source: Flush iFinD, the individual stocks mentioned are for market analysis only and are not used as investment basis)

This wave of market prices is more driven by the news.

At the Tesla shareholders’ meeting in May, Musk released a video showing various advanced functions of the robot Optimus, including autonomous walking, environmental exploration and memory, flexible robot hands to grasp objects, and control of force without breaking eggs, etc. Details, have significantly improved compared to the products released last year, and also triggered the performance imagination of A-share robot parts manufacturers.

However, investing cannot only rely on news. In particular, related stocks have accumulated a certain amount of gains in the short term, and there is a possibility of a correction, so solid fundamentals are even more important. Whether the concept of humanoid robots will have a second or third wave in the future will be more based on hard technology research and development capabilities and business performance.

What is the current situation of the robot industry? What kind of humanoid robots can existing technology support? How should we invest in humanoid robot concepts?

Today the dean will give you a detailed introduction.

Is humanoid robots about to become popular?

Traditional industrial robots are mainly used in industrial production, and buyers are generally industrial enterprises. This is a very mature product and has already formed a monopoly.

Humanoid robots are still a very new product. Before Tesla released this product, some other products had already been released, but their capabilities were quite obvious.

Boston Dynamics’ humanoid robot Atlas can run, flip, jump and soar like an athlete, and can quickly cross obstacles with a certain slope. However, a single unit is worth US$2 million, making it difficult to move out of the laboratory and into commercialization.

Ameca, the humanoid robot manufactured by Engineered Arts, has facial expressions and movements that are extremely close to real people, and may be used in entertainment and communication scenarios in the future. But it is currently completely unable to walk, and the price is $133,000.

The humanoid robot Optimus released by Tesla this time, already has good movement capabilities, and the price may be controlled to about 20,000 US dollars in the future. Most ordinary families can afford it, making it easier to complete. commercialize.

Because it can reuse the algorithm of Tesla cars, Optimus’s iterative upgrade speed is also significantly faster than its peers, and the technology is relatively advanced and practical. Currently, Optimus is expected to start delivery at the end of 2023, with target volumes of 100,000 units in 2023, 500,000 units in 2024, and 1 million units in 2025.

It can be said that the products released by Tesla this time show that humanoid robots have passed the stage of display-oriented and gimmicks outweighing practical applications, and the entire industry is about to change from 0 to 1. This is the core logic behind the recent surge in the concept of humanoid robots.

Currently, we may be on the eve of the explosive growth of humanoid robots. The original domestic Tesla automobile suppliers and robot parts suppliers will obviously benefit and have corresponding investment value.

How big is the market for humanoid robots?

Tesla’s super R&D capabilities have basically solved the technical difficulties of humanoid robots, but it is still very important to fully assess market demand.

From the application side, the expected application range of humanoid robots is still relatively broad.

1X Technologies, a Norwegian humanoid robot company, was founded in 2014. It mainly produces two humanoid robots, EVE and NEO, of which 140 units of EVE have been delivered in 2022. (Source: Tianfeng Securities)

This robot is currently working as a security guard at two industrial sites. Existing security robots look like typical robots, but EVE completely imitates a real person, with a head, a face, and two arms. For company employees and customers, it looks much better than a cold machine.

And Musk’s Optimus can even “produce itself”. Tesla factory workers in the United States are paid US$16 per hour. If humanoid robots can replace them, assuming the humanoid robot is priced at US$70,000, the estimated hourly cost is only US$1.70, which is a significant cost reduction. (Source: Tianfeng Securities)

Human resources costs are particularly high in Europe and the United States, and low-cost robots are an important part of industrial enterprises' efforts to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The potential demand for humanoid robots is very large.

Moreover, The humanoid robot currently produced by Tesla is the same as the large AI model. It is a general-purpose device and does not need to change its shape and design. It can complete different production tasks as long as the corresponding software is installed, It may also have certain advantages over industrial robots in specific fields.

In fact, with the continuous development of the humanoid robot industry chain, the performance of related A-share listed companies has increased significantly.

For example, Shuanghuan Transmission expects a net profit of 350 million yuan to 370 million yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 39.48% to 47.45%. The company stated that With the acceleration of the localization of robot reducers, the robot precision reducer business has achieved rapid development, and sales have increased significantly compared with the same period last year. (Source: Announcement of listed companies; mention of individual stocks is for market analysis only and not used as investment basis)

Overall, we believe that the humanoid robot industry is relatively promising in the future and has corresponding investment value.

Which targets are more reasonable?

At present, there are three main indexes that are highly related to humanoid robots. One is the CSI Robot Index, the second is the CSI Machine Tool Index, and the third is the CSI New Energy Vehicle Index.

Among them, the CSI Robot Index mainly covers companies in subdivided fields such as artificial intelligence, sensors, and sweeping robots, and relatively comprehensively covers the robot-related industry chain. Although it is not directly related to humanoid robots, the correlation is relatively high.

The CSI Machine Tool Index mainly includes companies in the CNC machine tool industry chain. CNC machine tools and humanoid robots still have certain similarities in sensors and controllers.

The CSI New Energy Vehicle Index includes many stocks that are currently attracting financial attention, but the overall weight of related stocks is relatively low.

In summary, the dean recommends that everyone focus on the related products of the CSI Robot Index, namely Robot ETF (562500), Robot ETF (159770), Robot YH (562360) . In addition, you can also pay attention to the Industrial Machinery ETF (159667) and the Machine Tool ETF (159663).

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