Full text of Musk's WAIC2023 speech: AI will have a profound impact on human civilization

The 2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference WAIC2023 opened in Shanghai on the 6th. Tesla CEO Elon Musk spoke via video. Musk expressed his views on the development of artificial intelligence and autonomous driving, and expressed his willingness to open up autonomous driving technology to promote the progress of the industry.

The following is the full text of the speech:

I believe that artificial intelligence will play an important role in the future evolution of mankind and have a profound impact on civilization.

We have witnessed an explosion of digital computing power. A key metric is the ratio of the computational power of digital computers to biological brains. As the computing power ratio between humans and machines continues to increase, the computing power gap between machines and living things is getting wider and wider.

As time goes by, the proportion of artificial intelligence in overall intelligence will gradually decrease. Compared with machine intelligence, this will be a fundamental and profound change. Although its impact is difficult to fully understand now, it was probably one of the most profound periods in human history. Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is still in the early stages of development, but we can expect to see more robots appear in the future.

Therefore, we need to consider another ratio issue, that is, what is the ratio of robots to humans?

According to the current situation, the number of robots in the world will exceed the number of humans, and the ratio is expected to exceed 1:1. The computing power of robots far exceeds that of humans, which seems to be a development trend. This will bring positive effects, but also some negative effects. We are about to enter an era in which almost anything you want is available immediately, with no shortage. This is a very significant change. There will be a large number of robots in the future world, and their production efficiency far exceeds that of humans.

Therefore, we need to be careful to ensure that the end result is beneficial to humans.

The development trend of companies such as Tesla in the field of humanoid robots shows that we will see more and more robots that are intelligent enough to complete some repetitive, tedious and dangerous tasks that humans are unwilling to do. this is our target. Optimus humanoid robots can be extremely useful due to tasks that are not favored by humans. However, I would not be overly confident or overly optimistic in concluding that Optimus' role must be important.

But Tesla is very interested in self-driving technology and is willing to share and license its self-driving technology with other automakers.

We think this is a very valuable technology. I believe that the boredom people feel when driving a car will completely disappear, and the use of cars will also increase significantly. Family cars are typically used 10 to 20 hours per week, with most of the time parked in parking lots. Fully autonomous vehicles may be used for 50 to 60 hours per week, for a total of 168 hours. As a result, the usage of fully autonomous vehicles will grow five times faster than that of non-fully autonomous vehicles.

Tesla hopes to license its fully self-driving technology to other automakers to make it available. So where are we now with respect to autonomous driving?

Tesla believes that we are very close to fully autonomous driving with no human intervention. We've tested it on U.S. roads, and human intervention is now rarely needed. So when I drive a Tesla using the latest FSD fully autonomous driving beta technology system, basically the journey from point A to point B does not require much human control. This is just a conjecture, but I think The realization of fully autonomous driving, or L4 to L5 fully autonomous driving, may be achieved later this year.

My previous predictions were all wrong, but I believe my predictions now are more accurate than ever. Therefore, we should be very wary of this kind of deep artificial intelligence for comprehensive intelligence, especially for fully autonomous vehicles. In our case, achieving fully autonomous driving with limited artificial intelligence technology is challenging.

But we believe that this problem can be solved soon, I have already made a prediction. It is possible to achieve fully autonomous driving later this year, although it is not 100% guaranteed, but the trend is towards fully autonomous driving later this year. However, this limited artificial intelligence is completely different compared to artificial general intelligence (AGI), which is very difficult to define.

AGI is a type of intelligence that surpasses human intelligence in any field. Tesla is not working on this, other companies are working on AGI. But I think it's an important question that we need to think about, and it's very important right now.

In order to ensure the development of deep artificial intelligence, we need to implement some regulatory measures to monitor its progress. When I say deep artificial intelligence, I mean something close to the intelligence of tens or even hundreds of thousands of high-performance computers, or even sometimes millions of high-performance computers. State-of-the-art computers collaborate through data centers to form super-intelligent combinations. Such superintelligence has abilities greater than those of humans. It’s a dedication and a worry.

It may bring about a positive future, but there is also a certain probability of a negative future. We want to do our best to ensure that these negative futures don't happen and that we achieve positive futures. I have always deeply admired the ingenuity and diligence of the Chinese people. No matter the field or industry, once China is determined to do something, it will be able to successfully achieve it with outstanding performance.

Of course, the artificial intelligence industry is no exception. Therefore, I believe that China will have strong capabilities in artificial intelligence, this is my prediction.

Thank you very much for inviting me to participate in today’s online event and express my views. I hope you all find these points meaningful. Thanks again to all my friends in Shanghai, and to Secretary Chen. I look forward to being able to attend in person next time.

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