Institutional Screening | Key components of robots! The surge in demand will drive the reducer industry to flourish

As a core component in robot drives, reducers are expected to fully benefit from the outbreak of downstream demand. Benefiting from policies and driven by major downstream industries, domestic reducers will usher in a period of rapid development. The agency believes that the global RV reducer market will be in short supply in the long term. Leading stocks in the precision reducer segment are expected to benefit.

my country's robot reducer bearings are characterized by regional concentration, high scene customization, and small size. The market demand is expected to be 1.1 billion yuan in 2025, of which humanoid robot joint reducers will contribute more than 100 million yuan. The market size of my country's industrial robot reducer is about 5.95 billion yuan, of which the market sizes of RV reducer and harmonic reducer are 4.6/1.3 billion yuan respectively.

Aging combined with improving education levels has led to a shortage of factory workers

According to data, the proportion of China's current labor force aged between 15 and 59 continues to decline, which has led to increased pressure from aging. At the same time, the proportion of the employed population with a bachelor's degree continues to increase, which puts factories facing greater labor pressure. Labor costs also continue to rise (from 2011 to 2021, the per capita wage in urban non-private manufacturing units increased from 42,500 yuan to 110,200 yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 10%). Therefore, it is a historical trend to use robots to replace labor in production in the future

The labor cost ratio of robots continues to decrease, and the cost ratio of machine replacement is highlighted

According to cross-calculation of data provided by the China Robot Industry Alliance and the National Bureau of Statistics, the average sales price of industrial robots has dropped from US$43,500 per unit in 2015 to US$37,100 per unit in 2020. The price of industrial robots continues to fall while the wages of manufacturing workers continue to rise, resulting in a narrowing gap between the two. The labor-to-cost ratio of robots has dropped from 4.68 in 2015 to 2.51 in 2020. Taking into account the advantages of industrial robots in improving efficiency and safety, it is currently cost-effective to use robots to replace labor

The scale of the precision reducer industry will continue to expand in the future

The reducer is one of the important basic components of various industrial traditional systems. According to different application fields, they can be divided into general reducers and special reducers, of which general reducers account for nearly 50%. According to preliminary industry research data, the market size of my country's reducer industry will grow from 125.8 billion yuan to 160.5 billion yuan from 2021 to 2026, with an average annual compound growth rate of 4.99%. The competitive landscape of my country's reducer industry is relatively fragmented. In 2021, foreign-funded enterprises such as SEW and FLENDER accounted for about 20% of the market share and dominated the high-end market, while domestic leading companies accounted for 20%, mainly concentrated in traditional industries, and gradually moved to the high-end market. Market Penetration. The remaining 60% of the market share is occupied by many domestic small, medium and micro enterprises. In recent years, the products of my country's local companies have continued to develop towards high-end and mechatronics integration, and the gap with international brands has gradually narrowed. In addition, the successive introduction of policies has also supported the development of the reducer industry. The localization rate will accelerate and leading companies will face good development opportunities. The precision reducer has the characteristics of short transmission chain, small size, high power, light weight and easy control. It is one of the three core components of the robot. With the realization of large-scale production by enterprises in the industry and the rapid development of downstream collaborative robots, industrial robots and other industries, the scale of the precision reducer industry will continue to expand in the future

Harmonic reducer is a key core component in the field of robot production

Reducers play an indispensable role in high-end manufacturing. It is an intermediate mechanism that connects the power source and the actuator, and can match the rotation speed and transmit torque. According to different control accuracy, reducers can be divided into general transmission reducers and precision reducers. Precision reducers have the characteristics of small return clearance, high precision and long service life. They are more reliable and stable and are widely used in high-end fields such as robots and CNC machine tools. Harmonic reducer and RV reducer are common reducer types

Harmonic reducer is more suitable for small joint applications than RV reducer

Compared with RV reducers, harmonic reducers have significant reductions in materials, volume and weight. They have the characteristics of small size, high transmission ratio and high precision. They are mainly used for the forearms and wrists of robots. or hands. Moreover, the price of harmonic reducer is also cheaper. According to Green's harmonic prospectus, the price of harmonic reducers is between 1,000-5,000 yuan/unit, while the price of RV reducers is between 5,000-8,000 yuan/unit

The organization recommends focusing on the harmonic reducer, RV reducer, the core components of the motion control system, and the lidar of the environment sensing module, and looking for high-quality investment targets around subdivided tracks. It can be rewritten as: It is recommended that institutions focus on the core components of the motion control system, such as harmonic reducers, RV reducers, and lidar of environmental sensing modules, and at the same time look for potential investment projects in subdivided areas

The content that needs to be rewritten is: (Source: Zheshang Securities, Shengang Securities)

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