Carmack predicts general artificial intelligence will be born in 2030

IT House News on September 26, famous game developer John Carmack said that by around 2030, general artificial intelligence (AGI) may appear. Carmack is the developer of the famous shooting game "Doom"

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Carmack shared his views at an event for his AGI startup Keen to announce the hiring of Richard Sutton, chief scientific advisor at the Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute. Carmack calls Sutton the "godfather of reinforcement learning," saying that makes him ideally suited to lead efforts on AGI — artificial intelligence capable of approximating human behavior.

Sutton said at the event that he believes it is feasible to write artificial general intelligence (AGI) using existing technology. He added that he expects to see a prototype AI showing signs of life around 2030

At the event, Sutton and Carmack introduced some of the Keen employees who will be involved in the project. They both acknowledged that Keen's team is small compared to other larger AI agencies with billions of dollars and hundreds of employees, and that they only received $20 million (about 146 million yuan) in funding. Funds

However, Sutton and the Keen team are very confident that they can contribute to AGI. Carmack expressed his view that while "no one has found a solution to this problem yet, we think there is very little work to be done." He said these remaining problems do not require completely new thinking. or schema

"There are still fundamental research questions that need to be answered, and we have internal projects and angles of attack," he said, predicting that future textbooks on how to build AGI will include a chapter on what Keen and other institutions will do in the coming years. The work done by the.

He believes the effort will soon bear fruit and look like something successful. He said: "It will be six, seven, eight years before we can publicly display something really big and important."

Carmack also revealed that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman tried to hire him even though he had no experience in artificial intelligence at the time. Although he declined the offer, Carmack became curious about artificial intelligence

Carmack pointed out that the importance of AI lies in how it transforms its experience into observations of the world and predicts future situations, and how it requires internal and external motivation to promote its development. He believes that large-scale language models are currently unable to solve these problems because they cannot account for how our brains work. However, he also pointed out that various laboratories around the world are devoting resources to study these models

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