Ming-Chi Kuo calls Goodix Technology an undervalued domestic alternative winner: it will replace AMS as Huawei's ambient light sensor supplier

News from this site on October 20, Ming-Chi Kuo released a market research briefing today, believes that Goodix Technology (Goodix) will replace ams Semiconductor (AMS) and become Huawei's new ambient light sensor ( ALS) supplier.

Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Goodix Technology is an undervalued domestic alternative winner. He predicts that the optical fingerprint business will see strong growth in 2024 and will provide OPPO with , vivo and other companies provide related products.

Guo Mingchi said that Goodix Technology will replace NXP Semiconductors (NXP) and become OPPO’s exclusive NFC chip supplier, and is expected to continue to obtain flagship model orders from other high-end brands.

Guo Mingchi also predicts that Goodix Technology will become vivo’s second supplier of ultrasonic fingerprint sensors in 2024, breaking Qualcomm’s monopoly.

This site attaches the following information about Ming-Chi Kuo’s predictions about Goodix Technology:

Goodix’s optical fingerprint shipments will resume strong growth in 2024:

• It is expected that Goodix's optical fingerprint shipments may grow strongly by about 35% YoY to 190 million units in 2024.

• The key to strong growth is that Xiaomi’s optical fingerprint phone shipments will double in 2024. Secondly, the market share of Chinese OLED screens in the Chinese market continues to increase (estimated to be about 50% in the Chinese market in 2024 vs. about 40% in 2023). Due to the lower price, brands have more budget to adopt optical fingerprints.

• Optical fingerprints are Goodix’s key business, and strong shipment growth is expected to significantly contribute to the company’s revenue and profits in 2024.

Goodix’s high unit price ultrasonic fingerprint will benefit from the new trend of folding machines; high-end folding machines use two ultrasonic fingerprints as the key design trend:

• Goodix is ​​expected to start shipping ultrasonic fingerprints in 2024, becoming vivo’s second ultrasonic fingerprint supplier and breaking Qualcomm’s monopoly.

• Thin design is a necessary function of folding machines. Because ultrasonic fingerprints are significantly thinner than optical fingerprints (about 1/10 of optical fingerprints), they are one of the key components of folding machines in the future. .

• vivo X Fold 2 uses two ultrasonic fingerprints. After the cost of ultrasonic fingerprints drops, other brands will follow this design trend in the future.

• Qualcomm is currently the exclusive supplier of ultrasonic fingerprints, which costs about US$10. It is expected that after Goodix starts shipping next year, the cost of ultrasound will drop to about US$4-5, which will help increase penetration.

• According to the development history of optical fingerprints, when the cost dropped to about US$3, the penetration rate of optical fingerprints in high-end mobile phones grew rapidly. I think ultrasonic fingerprints may copy this trend, and even high-end non-folding phones will begin to use ultrasonic fingerprints.

• The current price of optical fingerprints is about US$1.5, of which about US$1-1.2 is the camera module purchased by Goodix. Therefore, even if the cost of ultrasonic fingerprints drops to be similar to optical fingerprints in the future , the profit contribution of ultrasonic fingerprint to Goodix is ​​still significantly higher than that of optical fingerprint.

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