Red-headed documents ignite market potential! How big is the high-precision positioning market for the 50,000 chemical plants across the country? -IOTE Internet of Things Exhibition

In the Internet of Things industry, positioning technology belongs to the market of solution providers, so the shipment volume is not necessarily large, but solution providers can create greater output value

For many small businesses in the Internet of Things, this is fertile land because the market is large enough and fragmented enough to compete in different segments.

In our survey, the main business of many companies is concentrated in the IoT enterprise application market

Among the hundreds or even thousands of IoT industry applications, the chemical plant industry is a market segment that deserves special attention

With the support of red-headed documents, chemical plants have become a battleground for positioning solution providers

Chemical plants are one of the high-risk industries, and safety accidents occur frequently. To this end, some provinces and cities have taken the lead in issuing policies requiring chemical plants to deploy personnel positioning systems, and have achieved good results in personnel safety rescue. Therefore, in October 2023, the Ministry of Emergency Management issued an important document called "Application Guidelines for the Construction of Personnel Gathering Risk Monitoring and Early Warning Functions Based on Personnel Positioning Systems (Trial)" to promote the popularization of the use of personnel positioning systems throughout the industry

Please see the appendix at the end of the article for detailed attachments

When analyzing an industry, an "industry driving force model" and an "industry demand model" are usually established

In the process of promoting the IoT enterprise-level market, policy drivers play an important role

Driven by policies, this market will transform from a "chaotic and unknown market" to a "market with high certainty." Therefore, the business expansion strategy of many companies is to "follow the guidance of government documents"

The market potential of chemical plants is huge

The potential scale of each market segment may be large or small, and some markets themselves have relatively small potential. Even if policies are forcefully promoted and market penetration reaches 100%, the market output value may not necessarily be very large

The market potential of chemical plants is huge

China’s chemical plant market lacks authoritative figures, but according to information obtained from industry enterprise surveys, the total number of chemical plants in the country exceeds 200,000, of which about 50,000 are in high-risk scenarios

According to estimates from the AIoT Star Map Research Institute, chemical plants have different personnel sizes. The number of people in a large chemical plant may reach tens of thousands, while a small chemical plant may have only one or two hundred people. On average, we can estimate the personnel size of a chemical plant to be about 300 people. It is roughly estimated that the number of employees in the high-risk chemical plant industry is approximately 15 million, and the number of base stations required to cover chemical plant scenarios is still very large

Depending on the positioning technology, the cost of the base station will vary greatly. We measure the cost difference between the Bluetooth Beacon solution and the UWB solution respectively.

To analyze the market potential, if everyone starts to adopt Bluetooth Beacon technology

If the Bluetooth Beacon solution is adopted, according to our research results, the entire factory area can be covered. It is understood that the number of Bluetooth Beacons is much greater than that of personnel tags, with a ratio of about 3:1 (yes, you read that right, the price of Bluetooth Beacons (60-80) is also higher than the price of personnel tags (100-200) Much cheaper)

According to calculations, if the Bluetooth Beacon solution is adopted, the total shipment volume of positioning products in this market will be approximately 60 million. In addition, the calculation of the replacement cycle is also very interesting. Generally speaking, we will calculate the replacement cycle of general products based on an 8-year cycle, but obviously, the service life of Bluetooth Beacon products is less than 8 years

According to the information we know, Bluetooth Beacon products usually need to replace the battery after about 3 years of use. Whether to replace the battery or purchase a new device will depend on each customer's choice. The approximate cost is as follows:

• If you are replacing the battery: Battery and labor costs, generally the cost of each Bluetooth Beacon device is about 30-40 yuan.
• If the equipment is replaced: The price of the new equipment is 60-80. (When replacing new equipment, the solution provider is usually responsible for the installation)

According to this estimate, if all Bluetooth Beacon positioning technology is adopted, the annual shipment volume of positioning products (including base stations and tags) will exceed 10 million units

The popularization of UWB technology will bring huge potential to the market

UWB technology has the characteristics of high precision. However, it is obvious that most scenes in chemical plants do not require such high-precision products. Therefore, traditional UWB positioning base stations (with high construction costs and high base station costs) do not have a large market share in chemical plants. They are only needed in some inspection areas with very high safety requirements

In previous articles, we have already analyzed that in order to replace Bluetooth products in the chemical plant market, UWB products have a very important prerequisite, which is to improve accuracy without increasing costs

Traditional power supply deployed base stations are difficult to meet this requirement, so UWB base station products are needed in the market to promote changes. In the past year or two, UWB-Beacon solutions have begun to enter the market. This product may be close to Bluetooth Beacon in cost

The deployment density of Bluetooth Beacon is usually 6-8m (due to unstable signal strength, the actual deployment density may be higher), while the deployment density of UWB-Beacon is usually 15-20m (if deployed in a non-metallic open environment, density may be greater). According to pessimistic estimates, the working distance of UWB-Beacon is twice that of Bluetooth Beacon. In order to cover a factory with the same area, the number of UWB-Beacon is only one-quarter of that of Bluetooth Beacon. Therefore, based on the calculation of 60-80 yuan per Bluetooth Beacon product, the price of UWB-Beacon products will be around 300 yuan, and the hardware cost is almost the same.

Based on the information we have collected, this price is achievable, and we are optimistic that we can reach this price in the next year or two

Source: AIoT Star Map Research Institute's "2024 China High-Precision Positioning Technology Industry White Paper"

If you use UWB-Beacon base station, each base station may correspond to a tag. According to estimates, the tag market potential is about 15 million units, and the corresponding total UWB product shipments are expected to be about 30 million units

Although UWB-Beacon products have added large-capacity batteries, their battery life is still limited. At present, the products in this industry can generally be used for 1-2 years. If optimized, it is expected to achieve the 3-year battery life cycle of Bluetooth Beacon products

UWB-Beacon products usually need to replace the battery, and the cost of each replacement is about 50 yuan (including battery and labor costs)

For products other than batteries, based on an 8-year use cycle, the average annual product sales is about 4 million units

Therefore, overall, chemical plants have huge market potential for positioning products

The attached content is: "The Ministry of Emergency Management issued the "Application Guidelines for the Construction of Personnel Gathering Risk Monitoring and Early Warning Functions Based on Personnel Positioning Systems (Trial)""

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