Bitcoin breaks all-time high: How to formulate a reasonable profit-taking plan?

Bitcoin has recently exceeded the previous high of 69,000, and even hit a record high of 73,000. As the market becomes hot, maybe we should also decide in advance when to take profits.

In this bull market, you can use two strategies to time your exit:

The first is price-based

The second is time-based

One is not better than the other, using both will give you better results. Using just one may cause you to miss out on big things.

Below I will explain each strategy individually and then apply these strategies to examples of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins.

Using Price as an Exit Strategy

I primarily use price-based exits for altcoins. This is because individual altcoins have their own small cycles and will not reach their peak at the same time as Bitcoin. Some rise quickly, some rise slowly.

Waiting for Bitcoin or Ethereum to peak may be a waste of time, as some altcoins have peaked before then. Therefore, keeping price in mind is key to ensuring profits. Regardless, the goal is to exit altcoins completely a few weeks after Bitcoin peaks.

Here are the key moments when you should seriously consider taking profits at these moments:

Price is close to the current all-time high

Price A rise of 5x, 10x, 20x or more from the bottom (not measured by your entry price)

What follows are instructive examples.

The candlestick charts below all represent altcoins with different momentum and targets. FLOKI is a good example of a meme coin that can grow 100x, RUNE is a solid project that can grow over 20x in this cycle, and AAVE will perform well if it reaches its current all-time high or grows around 10x very good. Use this guide to evaluate your altcoins in these three categories.

FLOKI

FLOKI has grown 65x since the bottom. If you bought at a bear market price, you should have at least withdrawn your principal.

Prices are also now close to all-time highs. It is better to take a portion of your take profit at this price and then leave a small portion of your capital to wait for a new high if it occurs. Buying here will give you exit liquidity and it's better to look for other opportunities.

RUNE

RUNE has risen 14 times since the bottom. If you haven't gotten your money back yet, you definitely should when the price approaches its all-time high of $20. RUNE is well positioned to rise further and hit new records. By then, you should have all your initial capital out and some profits. The rest you can sell after Bitcoin reaches its peak.

AAVE

AAVE is just waking up after a long period of consolidation and has risen 3x from its current bottom. Once the price reaches 5x the bottom or around $300, it’s time to gradually take profits. AAVE may reach all-time highs, but will have less momentum than RUNE or FLOKI. Don't expect a 65x growth like FLOKI here.

Just in case, keep some funds aside to wait for new all-time high levels. Once Bitcoin reaches its peak, sell it all.

Using Time as an Exit Strategy

Time means cycles, and in cryptocurrencies the currencies that set cycles It's Bitcoin. If you didn't know, Bitcoin follows its halving schedule on a four-year cycle.

##Having has a huge impact on the price of BTC Impact as it causes supply shock = token reduction = price increase. According to history, Bitcoin created a new all-time high price after the halving.

However, something unusual happened this year!

Bitcoin hits all-time high for first time ahead of planned halving in April 2024. This is because the approval of the ETF in January could be viewed as an early halving event, resulting in a demand shock = index demand = higher prices.

ETFs bought $1 billion worth of Bitcoin yesterday alone!

You should only consider taking profits on BTC and ETH after the halving event in a specific cycle. Ideally, after about a year, the price is close to its peak level.

However, this cycle has accelerated due to anomalies in the BTC ETF. You could say we have two halving events in 2024. One has created a demand shock and the other will create a supply shock. Together they accelerate the cycle. This situation will be further exacerbated if Ethereum also adopts an ETF.

For this reason, if you calculate approximately one year from January 2024 instead of April 2024, you can think that this bull market may peak in late 2024 or early 2025. Based on this, I believe that between October 2024 and March 2025 is a good time to take profits.

On this BTC chart, I highlighted in red the 2016-2017 bull market, which lasted two years , and the current bull market began in January 2023. At the time of this post, the price of BTC appears to be moving faster than the red cycle.

Interestingly, the 2017 top matches my exit time. I don't think Bitcoin will hit $1 million in 2025, but I would be pleasantly surprised if it does. Regardless, if the price ends the monthly candle under the yellow parabola, then Bitcoin will most likely peak there.

Once the price reaches our exit range, you should start selling. I recommend a DCA exit:

Sell 15% per month or 4% per week starting in October 2024. This will give you until the end of March 2025 to all opt out.

If Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading above a certain price, start selling early, especially if you are making life-changing profits.

Earlier I mentioned combining price and time to get a better exit. If for some reason Bitcoin exceeds $200,000 and Ethereum exceeds $10,000 before October 2024, I will start taking profits early. This cycle may come sooner than expected!

If this is the case, try to recover your principal and some profits. I plan to liquidate all my altcoins, Ethereum, and possibly sell some Bitcoin that I hold from my altcoin profits. Now, if I make 10x on an altcoin, I will move that profit to Bitcoin or Ethereum. I will then sell them when the price reaches my exit range or reaches the trigger price.

I may also decide not to sell any Bitcoin. The only reason to speculate at the top of Bitcoin is to buy more later. But it is risky and you may suffer losses. Never sell all your Bitcoins.

A similar prediction for Ethereum using conditions from the last bull run shows that our exit window also appears to be quite accurate. Interestingly, it also shows that Ethereum could go well above $20,000. This is an optimistic scenario, but it could become a reality if an Ethereum ETF is approved this year.

Make your exit plan now

If you want to be successful and satisfied To leave this bull market, you need an exit plan. If not, create one now. Success means you adhered to your exit plan, not reaching a specific dollar value.

Ask yourself, how much money do you want to make in this bull market? Set a goal, but make it realistic. Check out what your crypto portfolio is worth today, what is it? Then increase this value by a factor of 2 to 10. If you increase it 10 times, you may not be realistic. If you increase it by 2x you will most likely hit your target. Choose your scope and risk appetite. This is your price target.

If the target is not reached in the time period between October 2024 and March 2025, seriously consider whether your price target is realistic. I think 2025 is likely to be the year this market turns bearish, so don't delay too long once we get into next year. Profit on the way up. Exit using dollar-cost averaging.

If your goals are met and you stick to your plan, you will leave this bull market satisfied. Control your greed because as prices increase you will be tempted to change your goals. This is how long you miss your exit.

Don’t get back into the market at the end of 2025 because of FOMO. If the market tops, forget about it for one to two years. You can re-enter the market during the next bear market.

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