ENA's market value exceeds US$1 billion, but some people worry that it is creating the next black swan

Perhaps the hottest thing in the DeFi field yesterday was the Ethena airdrop. After the airdrop token application was opened, Binance’s financial management, flash swap, leverage, and contracts were launched on Ethena (ENA). The amount of investment exceeded 19 million BNB within one hour of opening. The ENA token rose by more than 30% in one day, directly entering the billions Market capitalization ranks.

According to Ethena’s announcement that the second season “Sats” event Epoch 1 has started, users can deposit USDe to earn Sats. The new Pendle pool on Mantle has a cap of $100 million and will receive additional Eigenlayer points. The existing USDe Pendle pool on the ETH mainnet is also capped at US$100 million, and existing users who deposit funds into the pool will receive an additional 20% reward.

Rune Christensen (@RuneKek), the founder of MakerDAO, recently deposited 566 million USDT into Ethena and created 565.5 million USDe. This marks Rune's first collaboration with Ethena. Additionally, MakerDAO is considering distributing 6 billion DAI through USDe and partnering with Morpho Labs to guarantee the quality of sUSDe loans in the DeFi lending agreement.

Some different voices were found within the community. Aavechan founder Marc (@lemiscate) published a tweet criticizing the recklessness of certain DeFi practices, specifically pointing out that putting $100 million of DAI, which represents 20% of its total supply, into a platform that has not yet been empirically proven protocol (Ethena) and there are no issues with taking any risk mitigation measures. Marc believes this approach to an asset that is highly susceptible to market terms is extremely reckless, and announced a proposal to lower the borrowing and lending rates on DAI at Aave.

We all know that in the cryptocurrency world, stablecoins are considered one of the most important tools. Whether it is a centralized or decentralized trading platform, whether it is a spot or futures market, most transactions are priced in stablecoins. Stablecoins have completed more than 12 trillion US dollars in settlement on the chain, becoming one of the top five assets in the DeFi field, accounting for more than 40% of the total value locked (TVL), and are by far the most widely used in the decentralized currency market. assets.

USDe is a stablecoin that hopes to provide scalability to improve capital utilization through the use of derivatives. By Ethena's design, USDe is able to scale while maintaining capital efficiency because the staked ETH assets are perfectly hedged through equivalent short positions, requiring only a 1:1 "collateral" to create USD.

Marc offered an analogy to explain the importance of risk management when using USDe: If you add 5 cl of gin to a cocktail party, you might Makes for a great night; but if you drink 3 bottles of gin, you might end up "with the toilet." This metaphor emphasizes proper risk management and setting reasonable caps in DeFi projects. importance.

「ENA/USDe, smells like LUNA/UST」

Analyst Duo Nine (@DU09BTC) further directly pointed out that MakerDAO is “printing money for free” and may eventually allow ordinary investors Pay the price: "They issued 100 million DAI, which can only be borrowed by using USDe/sUSDe as collateral. It is a huge cost for users, and a huge profit for Maker. The annualized return rate of 100 million reaches 66 %!」

#In Duo Nine’s view, it is only a matter of time before USDe becomes unanchored. The larger the bubble, the greater the probability of this happening. Ethena growing too fast could pose systemic risks to everyone. USDe, in particular, is untested in a bear market and the risks loom large once billions of dollars are involved.

"MakerDAO is exploiting the greed of users pursuing higher annualized returns on USDe. They don't care, they will fuel this greed with billions of dollars. Maker makes huge profits, and USDe's market cap will continue to grow Soaring", Duo Nine pointed out a potential pitfall in its tweet: USDe has a market capitalization of approximately US$10 billion, of which US$2 billion is Maker's Liability. If USDe breaks its anchor and panics and liquidations begin, Maker will be the first to sell USDe and recover funds to maintain their profits and principal, while those users who borrowed DAI with USDe and sUSDe on Morpho will be liquidated quickly .

As such, he calls on all the big players in Ethena to show some restraint and build for the long term.

Following Luna’s experience, the possibility of algorithmic stablecoin decoupling and the potential risks of rehypothecation have also worried some observers. And to some community members, it all looks really Luna-like. Many people are worried that the next DeFi black swan event may occur on an original stablecoin protocol that mishandles risk management, but we also hope that this prediction is wrong. After all, no one wants to experience Luna again. .

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