Report: 9 months after BTC halving, exchanges may experience supply shortages

‍A recent analysis report by Crypto asset exchange Bybit shows that if user demand for BTC remains at the same level, there may be a shortage of BTC on the exchange by the end of 2024.

The report predicts that if the current rate of withdrawals continues (currently around 7,000 BTC per day), BTC reserves may be completely exhausted within the next nine months.

The shortage prediction is closely tied to the BTC halving event in 2024, which will reduce the production of BTC per block in half.

Alex Greene, senior analyst at Blockchain Insights, said: "The rapid consumption of BTC reserves is reminding the market to prepare for a possible liquidity crisis."

"As reserves decrease , the market’s ability to absorb large sell orders without affecting the price will weaken.”

##According to Bybit’s report, after the US regulator recently approved a spot BTC ETF. , institutional investors have significantly increased their BTC investments, driving the growth of BTC demand against the backdrop of reduced supply.

Greene pointed out: “The surge in institutional interest has significantly increased the demand for BTC. This increase may exacerbate the shortage of BTC and push the price higher after halving.”

Freshman The nine major ETFs are purchasing BTC at a rate of approximately $500 million per day, which is equivalent to withdrawing approximately 7,142 BTC per day from exchange reserves.

At the same time, centralized exchange reserves only have about 2 million BTC left.

Bybit warned that if demand remains high after the daily mining supply is halved to 450 BTC, exchange supply could disappear early next year.

The next halving will reduce the mining reward per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, further limiting the new BTC supply entering the market.

This programmed reduction simulates the scarcity of resources, similar to the scarcity of precious metals, and is designed to control inflation and increase the value of BTC.

miner will face the problem of reduced rewards and increased production costs, which will most likely reduce the frequency of selling BTC immediately after it is generated.

The reduction in miner sales will cause the scarcity of BTC on public exchanges, further pushing the price higher.

Maria Xu, Crypto asset market strategist, said: “Miners are adapting to increased costs and reduced returns.”

“Many miners may sell part of their reserves before the halving to maintain operations. , this may temporarily increase the BTC supply, but the long-term decline in supply after the halving is certain.”

Bybit’s analysis shows that the tightening of BTC supply is a critical and urgent issue for BTC pricing. and investment strategies.

However, the exchange remains optimistic about the coming months and believes that declining supply may exacerbate the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) among new investors, which could push the price of BTC to unprecedented levels level.

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