Auteur : Nian Qing, ChainCatcher
Lundi, heure locale des États-Unis, selon les documents réglementaires et les annonces des sociétés concernées, la SEC américaine a officiellement approuvé les demandes de cotation et de négociation de plusieurs sociétés pour les ETF au comptant Ethereum. L'ETF spot Ethereum est officiellement entré en vigueur et les formulaires 424(b) sont publiés les uns après les autres. Nous attendons maintenant que l'ETF concerné soit coté mardi à 9h30, heure de l'Est (21h30). 23 juillet, heure de Pékin).
Le premier lot d'émetteurs d'applications d'ETF au comptant Ethereum comprend :
Il convient de mentionner que, comme le GBTC de Grayscale, Grayscale convertira le Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETHE existant en un ETF, poursuivant toujours le taux de frais précédent de 2,5 %. En octobre de l’année dernière, Grayscale et NYSE Arca ont déposé une demande conjointe pour convertir le fonds fiduciaire Ethereum de Grayscale en un ETF au comptant Ethereum.
Selon les données du site officiel de Grayscale, ETHE Trust a été créé en décembre 2017, coté en juin 2019 et coté en tant qu'ETF le 23 juillet. Actuellement, ETHE détient 2,63 millions d'ETH. Parce qu'il a été créé plus tôt, le coût moyen de détention d'ETH pour Grayscale n'est que de quelques centaines de dollars. De plus, après la conversion d'ETHE en ETF, le taux reste à 2,5 %. à ETHE était auparavant une fiducie qui n'autorisait pas le rachat pendant la durée et disposait d'une période de blocage de 6 mois. Associé aux frais élevés d'ETHE, qui sont 10 fois plus élevés que ceux de ses concurrents, cela entraînera des sorties de fonds importantes.
Bien que Grayscale ait introduit l'ETF Grayscale Mini Trust (les frais sont réduits de 0,25% à 0,15%, les 6 premiers mois sont gratuits, et c'est actuellement l'ETF avec les frais les plus bas) pour empêcher le flux de fonds, il est encore difficile d'éviter un événement comme la pression de vente qui s'est produite après la cotation de GTBC.
ETHE Trust was listed in 2019. Like GBTC, it is one of the earliest funds to bind ETH in the US market. Previously, ETHE was a closed-end fund. Because of its structure, there were certain arbitrage opportunities due to the premium and discount of the fund price relative to the net asset value. However, due to a series of previous bankruptcies such as FTX and DCG, GBTC and other trusts were once criticized by the market as " The originator of institutional bubbles and crashes”.
In addition, compared with trust products, ETFs are more transparent, more liquid, have lower thresholds and redemption risks, and are more easily accepted by mutual fund managers and pension funds, so they are more likely to be popular in the market. Therefore, While other institutions are applying for crypto-asset spot ETFs, trust products such as Grayscale's GBTC and ETHE were eventually converted into ETF products in order not to be gradually marginalized.
Because the selling pressure after GBTC was successfully converted into a Bitcoin spot ETF lasted for more than a month, the market is also concerned about potential large-scale outflows after the listing of ETHE.
Farside Investors data shows that as of July 22, GBTC has been facing capital outflows, with a cumulative net outflow of US$18.49 billion. Although the 2.63 million ETH held by Grayscale (valued at approximately US$9.3 billion) is quite different from the size of its GBTC, it is conceivable that the high rate of ETHE will still bring about certain outflows.
However, @analyst Theclues believes that there is a very big difference between ETHE and GBTC. The selling pressure after ETHE is listed will not be as intense as GBTC.
She believes that before the BTC ETF was passed, there were no twists and turns, and the expectations were stable. It rose nearly 100% in the three months before January 10th
And the ETH ETF was full of twists and turns, especially from "not able to pass in the short term" to "passed in July" "A huge reversal. It is expected that the speculation will restart from 2800, and the current increase is 21%. The motivation for Sell news comes from the expected profits of the speculation funds. In comparison, the motivation for ETH to be sold is different from that of BTC.
In addition, although ETHE also has arbitrage profits (buying at a discount of 40%), ETHE is very different from GBTC. Before GBTC was converted into an ETF, the weekly trading volume was only more than 100 million US dollars, and currently ETHE has been trading more than 400 million US dollars per week, which has been going on for several weeks. In addition, the ETHE premium has shrunk to less than 6% very early, and the premium only gradually recovered two weeks before GBTC was converted to ETF. Therefore, there is enough ETHE arbitrage. Space and market depth will sell ETHE shares. She believes that many smash-up predictions are highly subjective based on the idea that the "subject being predicted" is stationary.
In addition, even if there is selling pressure and market crash in ETHE in the short term, it will be absorbed by other Ethereum ETFs in the long term. We can see from the inflow and outflow trends of Bitcoin spot ETFs that despite the large outflow of GBTC, as of July 22, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has exceeded US$17 billion. And judging from the price performance, the selling pressure did not have too much impact on the price of Bitcoin.
In addition, compared with GBTC, another key move between ETHE and GBTC is that Grayscale spun off the Mini Trust ETF from ETHE. According to its official website, as of July 18, 2024, 10% of the underlying ETH of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE Trust) was split at the same time as the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH Trust) was created. Therefore, ETHE The NAV of the Trust shares will be 10% lower than the previous day's NAV on July 18, 2024 (without taking into account any potential increase or decrease in the price of ETH), and ETHE Trust shareholders will not need to take any action to receive the spin-off proceeds and will The right to receive ETH Trust shares at a 1:1 ratio. Therefore, their overall exposure to ETH will remain unchanged.
Currently Grayscale has two ETFs, ETHE and ETH. ETHE holds 90% of the initial ETH and has a management fee of 2.5%, which is more suitable for institutional and professional investors. ETH holds 10% of the initial ETH and has a lower management fee. Reduce user churn and reduce potential selling pressure.
Therefore , ETHE outflows will be more moderate compared to GBTC as holders transition to the Mini Trust ETF.
Grayscale’s Mini Trust ETF can also help long-term holders reasonably avoid taxes, which helps ETHE holders find a good middle ground between not reducing income and selling, especially those affected by potential capital gains Taxes hit holders.
Currently, many institutions have estimated the inflow scale of ETH ETF:
Grayscale Research TeamexpectsThe demand for US spot Ethereum ETF will reach 25%-30% of spot Bitcoin ETF demand. A large portion of the Ethereum supply (such as staked ETH) may not be used in ETFs.
ASXNDigital Asset Research believes that when the ETH ETF is launched, ETHE holders will have 2 months to exit at a price range close to the par price. This is a key variable that will help stop ETHE outflows, especially exit traffic. Internal estimates for ASXN are that it will see inflows of $800 million to $1.2 billion per month. This is calculated by taking a market cap-weighted average of monthly Bitcoin inflows and then multiplying by the market cap of ETH.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that the Ethereum spot ETF may obtain 10% to 15% of the assets obtained by the Bitcoin spot ETF, reaching $5 billion to $8 billion.
Galaxy then expects ETH ETF net inflows to reach 20-50% of BTC ETF net inflows in the first five months, with a target of 30%, which means $1 billion per month net inflow.
Shenyu predicts that the main capital inflow in the initial stage of listing between June and December may come from retail investors, accounting for 80 to 90% of the total funds, with less participation from institutional users. Considering that ETHE is similar to GBTC, the market may face some arbitrage and selling pressure. Whether it can withstand this selling pressure remains to be seen. After December, institutional investors may gradually enter the market.
However, the market generally believes that the inflows brought by the ETH ETF are limited.
JPMorgan Chase’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou predicted at the end of May that inflows into Ethereum ETFs may only be a fraction of Bitcoin’s.
Citibank expects ETF inflows to account for 30%-35% of Bitcoin inflows. That number will reach $4.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the next six months, CoinDesk said, citing the report.
Both the above two banks believe that Bitcoin has a first-mover advantage and emphasize that the functions provided by Ethereum cannot be achieved through ETFs, thus limiting demand.
At present, the general view in the market is that. Since the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF appeared in the Sell the News phenomenon in May, and the market waited long enough for the SEC to approve the 19-b and S-1 application documents, this led to the impact of the ETF on the market. It is likely to have been digested, so the ETH ETF will not bring much volatility to the price of ETH.
In addition, there are some more optimistic views that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin after the first batch of ETFs are launched.
Research from analytics firm Kaiko shows that the upcoming ETH ETF should enhance ETH’s performance relative to BTC. Kaiko said that since regulators approved the ETF in May, the ratio of ETH to BTC, a metric used to compare the two major cryptocurrencies, has risen significantly, from 0.045 to 0.05, and has remained high. In other words, it takes more Bitcoin to purchase one ETH, and this trend will only deepen when the ETF comes online. Although the price of ETH has been up and down since May, this ratio shows that ETH is ready to rise.
SynFutures CEO Rachel Lin said in May that in addition to demand factors, supply changes will also bring upside, which will cause the BTC to ETH price ratio to tighten. She believes that the market now has a attitude towards Ethereum"is not optimistic enough", all indicators point to ETH in the coming months. There will be a massive bull market.
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