グレイスケールはビットコインが2024年末までに最高値を再試行する可能性があると予測

グレイスケールリサーチはビットコインについて大胆な予測を立て、この仮想通貨が2024年末までに史上最高値を再試行する軌道に乗る可能性があることを示唆しています。

グレースケールリサーチは、ビットコインが2024年末までに史上最高値を再試行する可能性があると大胆に予測しました。この予測は、市場が不安定な期間を経て安定していることを受けてのものです。

仮想通貨市場は最近の混乱を経て安定

仮想通貨市場は、従来の金融市場と同様に、8月2日から8月5日までの下落期間を経て安定し始めました。この期間は、従来の市場の混乱の影響を受けてボラティリティが高まりました。仮想通貨と従来の資産クラスとの相関関係は歴史的に低いにもかかわらず、最近の市場の出来事は仮想通貨の評価に明らかな影響を与えました。

この最近の市場混乱のきっかけとなったのは、8月2日に発表された期待外れの米国雇用統計でした。この報告書は失業率の予想外の上昇を示し、潜在的な景気減速の懸念を引き起こしました。このニュースは株式などの景気循環資産の売りを引き起こし、投資家は米国債、日本円、スイスフランなどの伝統的な安全資産に向かった。米国以外米国株のボラティリティに賭けた株式や戦略も、この期間はアンダーパフォームしました。

グレースケールはビットコインが史上最高値を再テストすると予想

Despite these challenges, Grayscale Research is optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects. Their latest analysis suggests that Bitcoin could be poised to reach its all-time high again by the end of this year, provided that the U.S. economy avoids a severe recession and achieves a “soft landing.”

A “soft landing” scenario would see the economy slow down but avoid a full-blown recession, enabling a controlled adjustment rather than a drastic downturn. If the U.S. economy manages to achieve this, Grayscale predicts that Bitcoin could experience a substantial rebound, potentially revisiting its peak price point.

Key Points Impacting Bitcoin's Resilience in the Market

Grayscale's positive outlook is supported by several factors that could bolster Bitcoin's price:

* Favorable Economic Conditions: If the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing, avoiding a severe downturn, it could create a scenario conducive to Bitcoin's price appreciation. This scenario would involve a slowdown in economic activity, leading to lower inflation and interest rates, which could drive investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin.

* Stable Demand: Bitcoin's price is largely influenced by the balance between supply and demand. Grayscale anticipates that demand for Bitcoin will remain strong throughout the year, providing continued support for its price.

* Positive Market Sentiment: Investors' optimism and enthusiasm toward Bitcoin play a crucial role in determining its price. Grayscale expects that this positive market sentiment will continue to bolster Bitcoin's price throughout the year.

* Ethereum's Performance and Comparison with Bitcoin

As Bitcoin edges closer to potentially revisiting its all-time high, several points are worth considering:

* Bitcoin's resilience in the market is evident, outperforming most asset classes and serving as a hedge against inflation to some extent. This resilience has attracted attention, especially given the low correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets.

* However, this recent period has highlighted the varying speeds of recovery for different assets. While both Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced losses, the disparities in the severity of these losses are notable. This varying rate of recovery could be influenced by several factors, including the level of selling pressure and the resilience of each asset's price floor.

* Among the big two cryptocurrencies, Ethereum faced more pronounced declines during periods of market stress. While both Bitcoin and Ethereum suffered losses, Ethereum's drops were steeper, especially during the recent market downturn. This trend indicates a heightened level of volatility and downward pressure on Ethereum compared to Bitcoin.

* Bitcoin's price held up better than most assets during this period, with only a slight decline from the beginning of August. This resilience aligns with the broader market trend, where assets that experienced steeper losses in the first half of the year, such as equities and non-U.S. stocks, recovered at a faster pace compared to those that held up better earlier in the year, like Bitcoin and gold. This phenomenon could be attributed to the varying speeds at which different assets regain investors' favor during a market recovery.

* Grayscale's Optimistic Outlook for Bitcoin's Future

Grayscale Research is anticipating a potential Bitcoin rally toward revisiting its all-time high by the end of 2024. This projection is based on the assumption that the U.S. economy will achieve a soft landing, avoiding a severe downturn. They believe that if this scenario unfolds, it could lead to a scenario where Bitcoin experiences a substantial rebound.

Conclusion

Grayscale Research's forecast that Bitcoin could retest its all-time high by the end of 2024 presents an optimistic outlook for the cryptocurrency market. This prediction is based on the assumption that the U.S. economy will avoid a severe recession and achieve a soft landing. As the market stabilizes and recovers from recent volatility, Bitcoin's potential to reach new highs will depend on a combination

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