Analisis Ethereum ETF: Dengan jangkaan aliran masuk bulanan sebanyak AS$1 bilion, ekosistem DeFi akan mendapat manfaat daripada aliran masuk bersih yang berterusan

Pengarang: ASXN

Disusun oleh: Deep Tide TechFlow

Ethereum ETF akan dilancarkan pada 2 Julai Pasaran mengabaikan banyak dinamik yang berkaitan dengan ETH ETF yang tidak terdapat dalam BTC ETF. Kami akan meneroka ramalan kecairan, pembubaran ETHE dan kecairan relatif ETH:

ETF mempunyai struktur yuran yang serupa dengan BTC ETF. Kebanyakan penyedia mengetepikan yuran untuk tempoh yang ditetapkan untuk membantu membina aset di bawah pengurusan (AUM). Sama seperti BTC ETF, Grayscale mengekalkan yuran ETHEnya pada 2.5%, susunan magnitud lebih tinggi daripada pembekal lain. Perbezaan utama kali ini ialah pengenalan ETF ETH mini Greyscale, yang tidak terdapat dalam BTC ETF sebelumnya.

Mini trust ialah produk ETF baharu daripada Grayscale dengan bayaran awal yang didedahkan sebanyak 0.25%, sama seperti pembekal ETF lain. Strategi Grayscale adalah untuk mengenakan bayaran 2.5% kepada pemegang ETHE yang tidak aktif sambil mengarahkan pemegang ETHE yang lebih aktif dan sensitif yuran kepada produk baharu mereka dan bukannya beralih kepada produk berbayar rendah seperti ETF ETHA Blackrock. Selepas pembekal lain mengurangkan yuran 25 mata asas Grayscale, Grayscale telah mengurangkan yuran amanah mininya kepada hanya 15 mata asas, menjadikannya tawaran yang paling kompetitif. Selain itu, mereka memindahkan 10% daripada ETHE AUM kepada amanah mini dan memberikan ETF baharu ini kepada pemegang ETHE. Peralihan ini dilakukan atas dasar yang sama dan oleh itu bukan peristiwa yang boleh dikenakan cukai.

Hasilnya ialah aliran keluar dari ETHE akan lebih sederhana berbanding GBTC kerana pemegangnya hanya berpindah ke amanah mini.

Sekarang mari kita lihat kecairan:

Terdapat banyak anggaran kecairan ETF dan kami telah menyenaraikan beberapa di bawah. Menormalkan anggaran ini memberikan purata kira-kira $1 bilion sebulan. Standard Chartered menawarkan anggaran tertinggi pada $2 bilion sebulan, manakala JPMorgan memberikan anggaran terendah pada $500 juta sebulan.

Nasib baik, kami boleh menggunakan data daripada ETP Hong Kong dan Eropah dan kehilangan diskaun ETHE untuk membantu menganggarkan kecairan. Jika kita melihat pengagihan AUM ETP Hong Kong, kita membuat dua kesimpulan:
Nisbah AUM BTC dan ETH ETP lebih condong ke arah BTC berbanding permodalan pasaran. Nisbah topi pasaran ialah 75:25, manakala nisbah AUM ialah 85:15.
Nisbah BTC kepada ETH dalam ETP ini secara relatifnya tetap dan konsisten dengan nisbah topi pasaran BTC kepada topi pasaran ETH.

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In Europe, we have a larger sample size - 197 crypto ETPs with a total assets under management (AUM) of $12 billion. After analyzing the data, we found that the AUM distribution of European ETPs roughly matches the market cap of Bitcoin and Ethereum. And Solana’s allocation is too high relative to its market cap, at the expense of “other crypto ETPs” (anything that’s not BTC, ETH, or SOL). Solana aside, a trend is starting to emerge – the global distribution of AUM between BTC and ETH roughly reflects a market cap-weighted ratio.

Given that GBTC outflows were caused by the “sell the news” narrative, it is important to assess the potential for ETHE outflows. In order to model potential ETHE outflows and their impact on price, it is helpful to study the percentage of ETH supply in ETHE vehicles.

After adjusting for Grayscale mini seed capital (10% of ETHE AUM), ETHE serves as a carrier, where the supply of ETH accounts for a similar proportion to the total supply as when GBTC was launched. While it is unclear how much of GBTC outflows are turnovers versus exits, if one assumes a similar ratio of turnovers to exits, then ETHE outflows would have a similar impact on price as GBTC outflows.

Another key piece of information that most people overlook is ETHE’s premium/discount to Net Asset Value (NAV). ETHE has been trading within 2% of NAV since May 24 – while GBTC first traded within 2% of NAV on January 22, just 11 days after GBTC converted to an ETF. The approval of a spot BTC ETF and its impact on GBTC is gradually being priced in by the market, while the case for ETHE discounts versus NAV trading has been more clearly communicated with GBTC. By the time the ETH ETF comes online, ETHE holders will have 2 months to exit ETHE at close to net worth. This is a key factor that helps curb outflows from ETHE, especially direct exits from the market.

At ASXN, our internal estimates range from $800 million to $1.2 billion in monthly inflows. This is calculated by calculating the market cap-weighted average of monthly inflows into Bitcoin, adjusted by Ethereum’s market cap.

Our estimates are supported by global crypto ETP data which suggests that cap-weighted baskets are the dominant strategy (we may see rotational flows into BTC ETFs adopting similar strategies). Additionally, with ETHE trading at par ahead of launch and the introduction of mini trusts, we are open to potential upside surprises.

Our ETF inflow estimates are proportional to their respective market caps, so the impact on prices should be similar. However, one also needs to assess how much of the asset is liquid and ready for sale - assuming the smaller the "float", the more responsive the price will be to inflows. There are two specific factors that affect the liquid supply of ETH, namely native staking and supply in smart contracts. Therefore, there is less ETH liquid and available for sale than BTC, making it more sensitive to ETF flows. However, it’s important to note that the liquidity gap between the two assets is not as large as some suggest (ETH’s cumulative +-2% order book depth is 80% of BTC’s).

Our estimate of liquid supply is as follows:

As we get closer to ETF launch, it’s important to understand the reflexive nature of Ethereum. The mechanism is similar to BTC, but Ethereum’s burning mechanism and the DeFi ecosystem built on it make the feedback loop more powerful. The reflexive cycle goes something like this:

ETH flows into ETH ETF → ETH price increases → Interest in ETH increases → DeFi/chain usage increases → DeFi fundamental metrics improve → EIP-1559 burning increases → ETH supply decreases → ETH price increases → More Multiple ETH flows into ETH ETF → Increased interest in ETH → …

One important factor missing from the BTC ETF is the “wealth effect” of the ecosystem. In the emerging Bitcoin ecosystem, we don't see a lot of revenue being reinvested into base layer projects or protocols, although there is some small interest in ordinals and inscriptions. As a “decentralized app store,” Ethereum has an entire ecosystem that will benefit from continued inflows into the underlying asset. We believe that this wealth effect does not receive enough attention, especially in the DeFi space. There is 20 million ETH ($63 billion) in total value locked (TVL) in the Ethereum DeFi protocol, and as ETH prices rise, ETH DeFi becomes more attractive as TVL and revenue surge in USD terms. ETH has a reflexivity that does not exist in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Other factors to consider:

1. What will be the rotation flow from BTC ETF to ETH ETF? Let’s say there is a subset of BTC ETF investors who are unwilling to increase their net cryptocurrency exposure, but want to diversify. In particular, traditional finance (TradFi) investors prefer market cap-weighted strategies.

2. How well does traditional finance understand ETH as an asset and Ethereum as a smart contract platform? Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative is both simple and well-known. How well can Ethereum’s narrative (e.g. settlement layer for the digital economy, three-point asset theory, tokenization, etc.) be understood?

3. How will previous market conditions affect the flow and price movement of ETH?

4. Decision makers in traditional finance have chosen two crypto-assets to connect their world - Bitcoin and Ethereum. These assets have become mainstream. How the introduction of spot ETFs changes the way traditional financial capital allocators view ETH, considering they are now able to offer a product for which they can charge fees. Traditional finance’s thirst for yield makes Ethereum’s native yields from staking a very attractive proposition, and we believe staking ETH ETFs is a matter of sooner rather than if. Providers can offer zero-fee products by simply staking ETH on the backend and earn an order of magnitude more than a regular ETH ETF.

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