Original writer: Uncle Jian
「Is encryption over? Have you made money in this bull market?」
Before talking about this round of market conditions, let us review the previous The rules of the bull market and the A-share bull market
The generally accepted speculation logic of A-shares in the bull market is that brokerage firms are the first to pull the trigger, followed by high-quality blue chips such as insurance, real estate, and steel. Coal and non-ferrous metals kept up the dance, and finally the mad bull of theme stocks flooded the market and frantically searched for low-value depressions. The themes made a show and small tickets flew everywhere. At the end of the bull market, you need to find connections to open an account. Students no longer want to go to class, migrant workers don’t want to go to work, and security guards and aunts start to share their stock trading experiences. Listed companies are frantically increasing and reducing their holdings, and investors have no brainers to take over, and after the carnival, there is only a piece of chicken feathers left...
Looking back at the crypto bull market in 2021 has a similar flavor, first of all, the narrative of Defi Summer started, TVL doubled, driving Uni and Aave to rise wildly, and then Btc and Eth ushered in a unilateral rise. During this period, almost all themes and narratives started a round of rise, ranging from several times to ten times. times or even hundreds of times. In the middle and late stages of the bull market, the crypto market ushered in the rise of the Meme sector, the most representative of which were Doge and Shib. After the rise of Meme ended, new narratives such as Axs and Sand represented by blockchain games and Metaverse exploded, and the market After the crazy hype, the market was adjusted by various factors and never looked back.
Comparing the common points of bull markets in different fields, we can find that its core logic is to prioritize high-certainty and high-value assets, followed by sectors with narratives and hot spots. track, and at the end are garbage coins, air coins, and meme coins. However, with the rapid development and iteration of blockchain, three years have passed, and we have more narratives and tracks, such as the second layer of Ethereum, re-pledge, inscribed runestones, AI, etc. These narratives have finally It will replace the old narrative of the last bull market, so from the perspective of the subject matter, it is impossible to summarize the rules and where the current market has developed and what cycle it is in. Here we can summarize the rules through market value.
Core assets (i.e. BTC and ETH) - High market capitalization - Medium market capitalization - Low market capitalization - Meme - NFT / Others
So in this bull market, have you made money?
Do you feel that the financial efficiency is insufficient, and the track sector that you are optimistic about has a big correction accidentally?
Can value coins not outperform MEME coins? Earnings are not as fast as speculation?
GameFi’s data continues to hit new highs and financing continues, but it can’t become a hit?
The most direct feeling of this round of bull market is that the liquidity of funds is insufficient, the money-making effect is poor, and there is no state of letting a hundred flowers bloom. The passage of ETF has injected super liquidity into BTC, but this liquidity does not It cannot spread to different tracks and sectors. Although there are expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, there is still no guarantee that the interest rate cut that the market has been waiting for will significantly improve the current situation of the crypto market. We need to know that the funds flowing out of the interest rate cut may not be injected into the crypto market immediately, but may first fill the liquidity of the stock market and real estate market. After the liquidity in these markets overflows, they will flow into the crypto market.
Therefore, when the liquidity of funds is insufficient, and the adoption of ETF is superimposed, an extreme situation will occur, in which core assets will rise, other market values will remain unchanged or even fall, while MEME will be affected by the sentiment of short-term hot money. Here comes the rise. However, this kind of rise in the Meme sector is not a long-term sustainable rise. Sometimes it can only last for a few days or even a few hours. This is also a manifestation of insufficient funds.
Why does this kind of insufficient funds occur? The fundamental reason is that there have been structural changes in the flow and transmission of funds. The funds injected by ETFs can only be transmitted to BTC and ETH, but cannot overflow layer by layer like a reservoir.
我們可以理解為目前的加密市場是一個蓄水池，不同的板塊和賽道都是一個蓄水池，只有上一層的蓄水池加滿了水才會溢出給下一層。根據上一輪多頭市場的時間節點來看，我們可以簡單剖析出一輪行情中資金流向的不同狀態。只有當市場資金在當前領域無法再選擇或飽和的時候，市場才會尋找價值更低，下一層去尋找更多機會，而資金的向下多半是迫不得已或是市場資金歸於飽和的情況下。因為每向下一層，也就是代表目前層級的賺錢效應變弱，所帶來的風險會逐漸上升。
讓我們再以最近的zk為例，多少人三年的心血被反擼。這也是一種資金不足的表現，即目前一級擼毛的空投市場並無法容納這麼多人。歸根結底在目前二級市場流動性和資金並不充裕的情況下，很多人從二級市場來到一級市場尋求機會，但是很多人沒想過，沒有二級市場的接盤，一級市場的意義何在呢？散戶目前想在一級市場賺錢真是難上加難。擼空頭比不過專業工作室，而且還容易被女巫，可以說目前的一級市場普通人難以存活，已經是科技戰場。
其次，天價市值的代幣不斷上所也進一步壓榨了流動性，從之前的BB 和Not ，到最近的io 和zk ，包括未來的Blast，其高估值在最開始就壓榨了上漲空間。新幣上市後，資金或多或少也會選擇流入這些幣裡，進一步壓榨了山寨幣的流動性。其實從最近上新幣第一天的表現來看，就能看出現在市場太缺錢了，開盤價比預期的都低，甚至出現了Not 當天買都能賺50%的情況，可見市場普遍對目前新幣的價值存疑。
根據2024年5月Binance Research的報告《高估值、低流通代幣現狀觀察及思考》中我們可以發現其目前的MC/ FDV為近三年最低，今年前5個月發行代幣的FDV 就已接近2023年全年總和。幣安表示，如果未來代幣想要維持目前的價格，則需要800億美元的流動性。
在需求量不變的情況下，低流通量可以輕鬆的在短期內拉高幣價，從而推高 FDV 。以昨天上線的 zk 為例，市值接近10億美元，但這依舊是大量未解鎖的情況下，其估值是不是有點太「高」了？
那麼高FDV對誰有利？
從專案方角度來看，高FDV 可能會推動市值的上漲，未來潛在收益機會增加
從VC的角度來看，高FDV 帶動的潛在高估值代表著VC 績效表現與指標
從交易所的角度來看，高FDV 並不影響交易所本身
從散戶的角度來看，高FDV 一般代表著專案持續營運的時間長，跑路的可能性低。但這進一步導致了散戶不願意接盤高 FDV 的代幣，而轉而全流通更有意思的 Meme 代幣，如 Not 就是個很好的例子。
因此我們陷入了一種互不接盤的牛市，即散戶不接盤 VC 幣，其原因是高 FDV 造成的天量解鎖。機構不接盤 Meme幣，其低價值和劇烈波動導致機構認為沒有投資價值。導致大家各玩各的，市場無法形成統一的共識。
目前市場的基本面和前幾年相比已經發生了變化，之前沿用的投資邏輯也需要調整和改變，我們認為資金不足和高估值低流通的情況是本輪牛市賺錢效應較差的核心原因，從而導致二級市場傳導給一級市場的表現不佳，疊加一級市場的女巫情況和工作室集群，賺錢效應進一步減少。
我們無法給出精確的答案來判斷目前加密市場究竟走到哪一步，也不知道 BTC 是否真的會突破十萬。不過目前我們理性分析出的市場問題是當下最需要解決的問題，或許市場只有將這些問題逐漸解決改變之後，真正的加密狂暴大牛市才會到來。
參考資料：
Binance Research：高估值、低流通代幣 現況觀察與思考
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