Bitwise CIO 預測 18 個月內將有 15B 美元流入現貨以太坊 ETF 市場

Bitwise首席投資長（CIO）Matt Hougan已經權衡了這些 ETF 的潛力，預測在交易的頭幾個月內受監管的市場將出現大量的流入。

Asset managers are eagerly preparing for the launch of new spot Ethereum ETFs, pending approval from the US Securities and Exchange Comfgan (SEC). In aBicentana). InaBicentana Office, H). has predicted substantial inflows into the regulated market within the first months of trading these ETFs.Hougan's projections are based on a data-driven approach, aiming to ga the otion nouge the ot. speculation in estimating this demand, as available market data can be used to support the forecast.

Hougan's analysis suggests that we can expect to see net inflows of

5%

Hougan compares the relative market capitalizations of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). As a starting point, he expects investors to allocate to Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products (ETPs) rough to Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products (ETPs) roughaly inPs), poughations reminder, US investors have had access to spot Bitcoin ETPs since 2021, with about

$56** billion currently invested in these products. By the end of **2025**, currently invested in these products. By the end of **2025**, currently invested in these products. By the end of **2025**, as the ppikem andm. Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch, Hougan expects this figure to reach **$100

billion or more.Using this $100** billion benchmark, he suggests that spot Ethereum ETFs wouldets tofal; parity, which he estimates will take approximately 18 months. However, Hougan acknowledges that the actual inflows may differ due to various factors.

For example, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ip. bringing along

$10** billion in assets. Factoring this in, the estimated net inflow to reach parity would be around **$25 billion.

To validate his estimates, Houou billion。 which already offer Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. According to Hougan, the asset split between the two cryptocurrencies in these markets is also interesting to note, with Bitcoin ETPs accounting for approximate 78% and Undere Management AUM). This alignment with market cap breakdowns strengthens Hougan's earlier estimate.

Hougan also considers the potential impact of the "carry trade" on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETP markets。 strategy, he highlights that the Ethereum ETP carry trade is not profitable for institutions. To maintain a conservative estimate, Hougan removes the $10** billion carry-trade-related AUM when sizing the Bitcoin market $15

billion in net inflows for Ethereum ETPs.

Related Reading: Analysts ential adjustments to the model, a starting point of $15

billion in net new demand for spot Ethereum ETFs within the next 18 months is a reasonable projection.

At the time of writing, ETH is tral 403, 30% % in the past 24 hours, after hitting a low of **$3,230 on Monday.

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