Author: Wall Street InsightsAs the debate between Biden and Trump kicked off, the impact of the US presidential election on the financial market began to gradually emerge. According to Global Network, the US media summarized the performance of both parties in the first 30 minutes: Biden was sometimes incoherent, and Trump lied on issues such as the economy, abortion, and defense spending of NATO members. The two also Fierce personal attacks were made against each other." Although the S&P Index has continued to fall for nearly 400 trading days without falling more than 2%, Goldman Sachs recently reminded that this situation may soon change . Goldman Sachs analyst Oscar Ostlund believes that the options market usually starts pricing around three months before the election. Although it has not yet fully entered this stage, market volatility is expected to occur soon. As the U.S. election approaches, market volatility is about to increase, and the market should pay close attention to the potential impact of the election on the market. CICC Liu Gang’s team believes that as the first round of the presidential election debate is significantly advanced from the previous September to the end of June. , and the approaching monetary policy "window period", all make it possible for
election transactions to start early, and the variables and impacts it brings may also gradually increase In addition, it is worth mentioning that 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists recently issued a joint letter sternly warning:
If former President Trump wins the election in November, his economic proposals will reignite accelerating inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy. . Some analysts also pointed out that whether Trump or Biden is elected, higher inflation is inevitable, the only difference is the pace
Goldman Sachs: Election risks are beginning to spread to financial markets
. The 2024 presidential election in the United States will usher in the first candidate TV debate at around 21:00 on the 27th local time (9:00 on the 28th, Beijing time). Biden and Trump will compete on stage again after nearly 4 years
Today. The TV debate may provide new clues on how the market views the impact of the election on asset markets. After surveying 800 institutional investors around the world, Goldman Sachs analysis concluded three key points:
▲ Regardless. Whether the Republicans or Democrats are in power, the government will increase the executive branch's spending freedom, which is undoubtedly a negative factor for the bond market
▲If Trump wins, whether it is a divided House of Representatives or a unified government, the market believes that. Both will be positive for the stock market, as it may mean the Fed will adopt more dovish policies ▲Investors generally believe that a Democratic victory will be negative for the US dollar and may lead to a depreciation of the US dollar.
高盛策略師Dominic Wilson在其選舉預覽報告中，詳細分析了美國總統和國會四種主要選舉結果可能對市場產生的影響。這四種情境分別是共和黨橫掃、民主黨橫掃、川普政府分裂和拜登政府分裂。
1.共和黨橫掃：
在共和黨橫掃的情景下， Wilson 認為股市將溫和反彈，收益率上升，貿易加權美元升值。由於共和黨政府可能會延續即將到期的減稅措施，並可能進一步實施企業減稅，因此債券殖利率可能會上升。
2.民主黨橫掃：
Wilson 認為，股市將適度下行，美元適度貶值，收益率上升。由於預期民主黨政府會實施更大的財政刺激措施，從而推高債券殖利率。
3.川普政府分裂：
在此種情景下，股市將適度下行，殖利率略有上升，美元有明顯的上行空間。潛在關稅的強烈反應加上財政緊縮可能對股市和殖利率產生負面影響。
4.拜登政府分裂：
股市將表現平淡，殖利率下降，美元走弱。如果新關稅的減免幅度小於預期，這將增加股市的上行空間，並可能推高收益率而非降低收益率。
高盛建議，儘管基線估計並不能為對沖股票風險敞口提供強有力的理由，但面對財政擴張和關稅風險，投資者應保持警惕。美元走強被認為是降低股市下行空間的更可靠方式，但面對關稅風險，殖利率也可能受到影響。 中金：美國大選如何影響經濟與市場
中金指出，相較於現任總統拜登，市場顯然對川普的政策更為關注，一是因為可能帶來變化，二是因為一些主張可能更為「極端」。對比拜登和川普的政策主張，發現在貿易和投資支出方面的政策具有一定共通性，而主要差異則集中在財稅、移民和產業政策上。 1）多數政策提振美國經濟的同時自帶通膨屬性，如貿易、投資支出、補貼甚至移民等政策，這可能導致大選後通膨難以持續大幅走低；2）貨幣政策空間或被壓制，不論是增長還是通脹的支持都可能使得美聯儲不需要降息太多；3）2025年1月債務上限生效， 或加大國債供給與債券利率的波動。 1）美債：大選後政策刺激預期和增長修復、通脹回升壓力，同時需要注意債務上限的臨近或再度導致發債不均，2025年美債供給量可能前低後高，重現2023年10月期限溢價帶動美債利率創下高點的情形。 整體判斷美債中樞4%，降息前區間4.7%-4.2%，寬鬆交易依然可以進行，但降息兌現時可能也是降息交易接近尾聲時。 2）美股：整體表現不差。 川普和共和黨主張的大規模減稅將提振企業獲利，但高新產業補貼或退坡，或有利於週期的情緒。 
2018年川普主張的大規模減稅提振企業獲利3）大宗商品：川普的政策主張下油價表現可能相對中性，加速石油和天然氣的勘探許可發放可能會導緻美國石油產量增加。 4）美元：短期美元沒有大幅走弱基礎。 2016年川普當選後的減稅與基建政策迅速提升成長與通膨預期，美元在其當選後趨勢性走高，但本次川普提出「弱美元」政策，推動美元走勢以「提振”美國出口，需要關注其可能影響。 以上是注意了！高盛警告：美國大選風險開始影響市場的詳細內容。更多資訊請關注PHP中文網其他相關文章！
