比特幣（BTC）是世界上最著名、最有價值的加密貨幣，最近跌破 59,000 美元大關。這種下降很大程度上歸因於
由於對買家活動疲軟和長期低迷可能性的擔憂，比特幣 (BTC) 價格於 2023 年 3 月星期一跌破 59,000 美元水平。然而，在這種表面停滯之下，更深入的分析揭示了即將到來的供應衝擊，可能會極大地推動比特幣的價格軌跡。
根據比特幣分析師 Mister Crypto 的說法，大規模的供應衝擊即將到來，這可能反映了先前比特幣減半事件後經歷的價格飆升。加密貨幣市場的供應衝擊是指可用硬幣數量大幅減少，通常是由減半事件或機構需求增加等外部因素引起的。
比特幣減半事件對於了解當前市場動態至關重要。大約每四年，開採比特幣的獎勵就會減半，進而降低了新比特幣進入流通的速度。縱觀歷史，這些事件之後都會導致價格大幅上漲，因為供應減少難以滿足現有和不斷增長的需求。
在比特幣之前的每次減半之後，在供需基本經濟原理的推動下，價格都會出現明顯上漲。隨著新比特幣的生產量減少，需求（尤其是機構參與者）往往會超過供應，從而推高價格。
The present market conditions indicate that institutional demand is already outstripping the daily production of Bitcoin, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. This situation is largely driven by the rise of Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds), which have become a significant force in the cryptocurrency market.
This week alone, Bitcoin ETFs have seen nearly $13 million in net inflows, a clear sign of strong institutional interest. Notable players, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, are leading the charge, accumulating Bitcoin at a pace far exceeding daily production. This trend is not confined to the U.S.; Hong Kong-based ETFs have also entered the market, injecting additional capital and further intensifying demand.
The accumulation of Bitcoin by these large entities is reducing the amount of Bitcoin available for purchase on the open market. As a result, the market is approaching a critical juncture where the scarcity of Bitcoin could drive prices up significantly.
Bitcoin mining plays a crucial role in the supply shock narrative. With each halving event, the reward for mining new Bitcoins is reduced, leading to increased competition among miners. Less efficient mining operations are often pushed out, leaving only the most competitive and cost-effective miners in the game. This reduction in available mining rewards further decreases the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation.
The decrease in daily Bitcoin output, combined with the ongoing surge in institutional buying, is setting the stage for a pronounced supply shock. Before the upcoming halving, the demand from U.S. ETFs alone was already higher than the daily supply. With the halving, this disparity is expected to grow even further, potentially leading to a situation where the available supply of Bitcoin is unable to meet the voracious demand from institutional investors.
As Bitcoin hovers around the $58,000 to $60,000 range, the market appears to be in a state of consolidation. This pause in price movement has led to speculation about the next major move for BTC.
If Bitcoin can rally to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $62,066, it will likely face significant resistance. This level coincides with a previously breached trendline and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $62,226, creating a crucial resistance zone. Breaking through this zone could set the stage for a sustained upward trend.
However, if Bitcoin fails to overcome this resistance, it could face a drop to $57,115. In a more bearish scenario, BTC could fall by as much as 19%, testing the daily support level at $49,917.
Despite the potential for a short-term decline, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator suggests a bullish trend is in play. The MACD, which measures the relationship between two moving averages, indicates that Bitcoin might continue to climb if current market dynamics persist.
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