Original writer: Uncle Jian
「Is encryption over? Have you made money in this bull market?」
Before talking about this round of market conditions, let us review the previous The rules of the bull market and the A-share bull market
The generally accepted speculation logic of A-shares in the bull market is that brokerage firms are the first to pull the trigger, followed by high-quality blue chips such as insurance, real estate, and steel. Coal and non-ferrous metals kept up with the dance, and finally the mad bull of theme stocks flooded the market and frantically searched for low-value low-value areas. The themes made a show and small tickets flew everywhere. At the end of the bull market, you need to find connections to open an account. Students no longer want to go to class, migrant workers don’t want to go to work, and security guards and aunts start to share their stock trading experiences. Listed companies are frantically increasing and reducing their holdings, and investors have no brainers to take over, and after the carnival, there is only a piece of chicken feathers left...
Looking back at the crypto bull market in 2021 has a similar flavor, first of all, the narrative of Defi Summer started, TVL doubled, driving Uni and Aave to rise wildly, and then Btc and Eth ushered in a unilateral rise. During this period, almost all themes and narratives started a round of rise, ranging from several times to ten times. times or even hundreds of times. In the middle and late stages of the bull market, the crypto market ushered in the rise of the Meme sector, the most representative of which were Doge and Shib. After the rise of Meme ended, new narratives such as Axs and Sand represented by blockchain games and Metaverse exploded, and the market After the crazy hype, the market was adjusted by various factors and never looked back.
Comparing the common points of bull markets in different fields, we can find that its core logic is to prioritize high-certainty and high-value assets, followed by sectors with narratives and hot spots. track, and at the end are garbage coins, air coins, and meme coins. However, with the rapid development and iteration of blockchain, three years have passed, and we have more narratives and tracks, such as the second layer of Ethereum, re-pledge, inscribed runestones, AI, etc. These narratives have finally It will replace the old narrative of the last bull market, so from the perspective of the subject matter, it is impossible to summarize the rules and where the current market has developed and what cycle it is in. Here we can summarize the rules through market value.
Core assets (i.e. BTC and ETH) - High market capitalization - Medium market capitalization - Low market capitalization - Meme - NFT / Others
So in this bull market, have you made money?
Do you feel that the financial efficiency is insufficient, and the track sector that you are optimistic about has a big correction accidentally?
Can value coins not outperform MEME coins? Earnings are not as fast as speculation?
GameFi’s data continues to reach new highs and financing continues, but it can’t become a hit?
The most direct feeling of this round of bull market is that the liquidity of funds is insufficient, the money-making effect is poor, and there is no state of letting a hundred flowers bloom. The passage of ETF has injected super liquidity into BTC, but this liquidity does not It cannot spread to different tracks and sectors. Although there are expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, there is still no guarantee that the interest rate cut that the market has been waiting for will significantly improve the current situation of the crypto market. We need to know that the funds flowing out of the interest rate cut may not be injected into the crypto market immediately, but may first fill the liquidity of the stock market and real estate market. After the liquidity in these markets overflows, they will flow into the crypto market.
Therefore, when the liquidity of funds is insufficient, and the adoption of ETF is superimposed, an extreme situation will occur, in which core assets will rise, other market values will remain unchanged or even fall, while MEME will be affected by the sentiment of short-term hot money. Here comes the rise. However, this kind of rise in the Meme sector is not a long-term sustainable rise. Sometimes it can only last for a few days or even a few hours. This is also a manifestation of insufficient funds.
Why does this kind of insufficient funds occur? The fundamental reason is that the flow and transmission of funds have undergone structural changes. The funds injected by ETF can only be transmitted to BTC and ETH, but cannot overflow like a reservoir.
我们可以理解为目前的加密市场是一个蓄水池，不同的板块和赛道都是一个蓄水池，只有上一层的蓄水池加满了水才会溢出给下一层。根据上一轮牛市的时间节点来看，我们可以简单剖析出一轮行情中资金流向的不同状态。只有当市场资金在当前领域无法再选择或者饱和的时候，市场才会寻找价值更低，下一层去寻找更多机会，而资金的向下多半是迫不得已或是市场资金归于饱和的情况下。因为每向下一层，即代表目前层级的赚钱效应变弱，所带来的风险会逐步上升。
让我们再以最近的zk为例，多少人三年的心血被反撸。这也是一种资金不足的表现，即目前的一级撸毛空投市场并无法容纳这么多人。归根结底在目前二级市场流动性和资金并不充裕的情况下，很多人从二级市场来到一级市场寻求机会，但是很多人没想过，没有二级市场的接盘，一级市场的意义何在呢？散户目前想在一级市场上赚钱真是难上加难。撸空头比不过专业工作室，而且还容易被女巫，可以说目前的一级市场普通人难以存活，已经是科技战场。
其次，天价市值的代币不断上所也进一步压榨了流动性，从之前的 BB 和 Not ，到最近的 io 和 zk ，包括未来的Blast，其高估值在最开始就压榨了上涨空间。新币上市后，资金或多或少也会选择流入到这些币里，从而进一步压榨了山寨币的流动性。其实从最近上新币第一天的表现来看，就能看出现在市场太缺钱了，开盘价比预期的都低，甚至出现了 Not 当天买都能赚50%的情况，可见市场普遍对目前新币的价值存疑。
根据2024年5月Binance Research的报告《高估值、低流通代币现状观察及思考》中我们可以发现其目前的 MC/FDV为近三年最低，其今年前5个月发行代币的 FDV 就已接近2023年全年总和。币安表示，如果未来代币想要维持目前的价格，则需要800亿美元的流动性。
在需求量不变的情况下，低流通量可以轻松的在短期内拉高币价，从而推高 FDV 。以昨天上线的 zk 为例，市值接近10亿美元，但这依旧是大量未解锁的情况下，其估值是不是有点太“高”了？
那么高FDV对谁有利？
从项目方角度来看，高 FDV 可能会推动市值的上涨，未来潜在收益机会增加
从VC的角度来看，高 FDV 带动的潜在高估值代表着 VC 业绩表现和指标
从交易所的角度来看，高 FDV 并不影响交易所本身
从散户的角度来看，高 FDV 一般代表着项目持续运营的时间长，跑路的可能性低。但是这进一步导致了散户并不愿意接盘高 FDV 的代币，而转而全流通更有意思的 Meme 代币，如 Not 就是个很好的例子。
因此我们陷入了一种互不接盘的牛市，即散户不接盘 VC 币，其原因是高 FDV 造成的天量解锁。机构不接盘 Meme币，其低价值和剧烈波动导致机构认为没有投资价值。导致大家各玩各的，市场无法形成统一的共识。
目前市场的基本面和前几年相比已经发生了变化，之前沿用的投资逻辑也需要调整和改变，我们认为资金不足和高估值低流通的情况是本轮牛市赚钱效应较差的核心原因，从而导致二级市场传导给一级市场的表现不佳，叠加一级市场的女巫情况和工作室集群，赚钱效应进一步减少。
我们无法给出准确的答案来判断目前加密市场究竟走到哪一步，也不知道 BTC 是否真的会突破十万。不过目前我们理性分析出的市场问题是当下最需要解决的问题，或许市场只有将这些问题逐渐解决和改变之后，真正的加密狂暴大牛市才会到来。
参考资料：
Binance Research：高估值、低流通代币 现状观察及思考
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