撰文：Syndicate
编译：深潮 TechFlow
正如前文讨论的那样，L3s 面临着经济可持续性的实际挑战。
虽然 Base 在 2024 年第一季度仅通过序列器获得了超过3000 万美元的收入，但对于少数几个 L2（如 Base、Arbitrum、OP Mainnet 和 Polygon）有效的方法并不适用于 L3。为什么呢？
目前，L3 正因其能够显着降低用户和开发者的费用而越来越受欢迎——这为构建新的完全链上应用、游戏和体验打开了可能性。类似于云计算将构建 Web 应用的成本和时间减少了成千上万倍，L3 也可能对 Web3 实现同样的效果，使得新的世界网络能够以成千上万倍的速度和成本构建。这至少是理论上的。
然而，费用降低成千上万倍也为L3 带来了显着的经济挑战：费用大幅降低意味着它们不能依赖序列器费用作为主要收入来源，除非它们拥有类似L2 的交易量，这对于几乎所有L3 来说都是不可行的。此外，要实现成千上万倍的费用降低，L3 的运行成本仍需从今天的水平再降低 10 倍到 100 倍。这将需要对 L3 的基础设施进行彻底的转变，而非渐进的改进。
这为 L3 带来了严重的经济困境。 L3 如何希望解决这个问题？
通过我们与新兴的L3 生态系统的合作，Syndicate 团队看到L3 尝试通过增加网络费用来应对这一挑战，以从其序列器中产生利润（或至少尝试实现盈亏平衡）。迄今为止，这些努力尚未带来盈利。
几个月前，我们对 L3 进行了经济情景模拟——在各种链上活动和费用水平下相对于 L2 的分析——以了解它们的盈亏平衡和盈利途径。结果令人警醒。
如果 L3 的费用比今天的 L2便宜 10 倍（或更多），除非其每月交易量超过 5000 万，否则 L3 永远无法盈利。这相当于 Base 活动量的 50% 以上或 Arbitrum 活动量的 75%。
Base 和 Arbitrum——以太坊最活跃的两个 L2——其网络每月通常有 5000 万到 1 亿次交易。但这些是最大的参与者。在过去的 30 天里，Zora 看到 380 万次交易，Mode 看到 380 万次交易，而 Redstone 看到 110 万次交易。
要实现盈亏平衡，一个每月有 500 万次交易的 L3 需要将其费用设定为 L2 的 3 倍以内。这是一个很大的挑战，特别是如果 L3 主要依靠较低的费用进行竞争。仅仅比 L2 便宜 3 倍远远不足以吸引用户和开发者采用新网络。因此，L3 必须在其他方面（如可扩展性、可定制性和社区所有权）与 L2 区分开来。
在过去的 30 天里，只有两个 L3 的交易量超过 500 万次，它们都专注于游戏：Xai（2.75 亿次交易）和 Proof of Play Apex（6900 万次交易）。 Xai 的网络费用比 L2 低近 200 倍，这意味着它可能在亏损运行。另一方面，Proof of Play Apex 的网络费用比 L2 高 15 倍，这意味着它可能在盈利，具体取决于谁在支付费用。
但考虑到所有这些，那么 L3（以及 L2）实现可持续性和长期价值的途径是什么呢？
今天，L3 可以被视为一种「运营成本」或「成本中心」，目的是启动一个新网络的发展，使其随着时间的推移变得有价值。此外，通过运行序列器、设置网络费用和使用自定义gas 代币，L3 还为运营商提供了新的经济工具，通过有针对性的gas 补贴和激励措施来动态管理他们的生态系统，包括用户、开发者、应用程序和合作伙伴。
例如，考虑一个在 L2 上的完全链上游戏，并为每个链上操作支付交易费用。为了改善用户体验，游戏开发者可能希望代表用户赞助许多（或全部）交易，随着游戏的发展，这将非常昂贵。即使在今天流行的L2 上gas 费用很低，如果一个游戏有50,000 名日活跃用户（DAU），玩家平均每天进行100 次链上操作，总计每天赞助的gas 费用超过10,000 美元（或每年近500 万美元的gas 费用）。对于许多 L2 来说，这个数字可能会增长到每年 2500 万到 5000 万美元！因此，构建在自己 L3 上的游戏将这些可变成本降低到接近零，使得许多新的主流社交、游戏和消费者应用——即链上应用——在经济上可行。
"Completely on-chain" is also the main selling point of some games and applications. For example, Skyoneer is a fully on-chain game that exists on its L3 Gold, which focuses on strategy games. Pirates Nation, another fully on-chain game that exists on Proof of Play Apex L3, said: “When a game is on-chain, it means we are not running any servers. We cannot shut down the game, it will exist forever. ...On-chain gaming... guarantees permanence, interoperability, and composability.” Lower costs are not a direct selling point here, but they are necessary to make the other benefits of games fully on-chain possible. condition.
The ultra-low fee also unlocks new usage scenarios that users may not otherwise engage in. Consider that Ham Chain recently enabled a new tipping and micro-transaction experience on its L3 by significantly reducing the cost of each transaction.
Thus, the main economic benefit of L3s is not revenue generation, but the value they provide to the applications built on them. By significantly reducing transaction costs, L3 enables new applications and business models that may not be economically viable on more expensive L1 or L2 networks, and they allow applications to retain more value at a lower cost.
While L3 may be viewed as a cost center or a negligible revenue source today, our team has a clearer picture of how L3 can become increasingly sustainable and valuable in the future Vision. There are new models on the horizon that will profoundly reshape the economics of L3, both for developers and users.
The most obvious example is priority fees. As more applications, users, and transactions gradually migrate to L3, we may see the emergence of priority fee markets in popular L3s in gaming, social, and finance. Of course, the priority fee market will only open up when activity on L3 grows to the point where block space is no longer as plentiful as it is today with Ethereum L1 and popular L2s like Base.
However, one of the more innovative models we have started to see is the use of L3’s native gas or staking tokens. For example, Degen Chain uses $DEGEN as its native gas token, creating additional utility for $DEGEN. The new L3 under development not only plans to use its own custom gas token, but also plans to use a custom staking mechanism to help secure or co-operate the network, giving its token more utility. By using native tokens—rather than focusing solely on value created through sequencer profits—many L3s are exploring ways to create value through their native tokens. In some cases, like Degen, this is a bigger value driver and opportunity than sequencer profits.
There will be greater economic breakthroughs in the future. Our team dug deep into L3's development and issues for growth and long-term sustainability, and through this work we discovered big issues (and opportunities) related to how L3 was designed and operated that ultimately limited them Economic autonomy and potential today. However, if you can fundamentally change the way L3 is designed and operated - you can unlock new revenue, new markets and major structural advantages. This means that in the near future, L3 will not only be 1000 times cheaper, but will also be able to access new revenue and value generation opportunities that are not possible today. We look forward to sharing our research and work in this area in the coming weeks.
As L3 continues to develop, we will see many new experiments in the field of value creation and capture, both from the perspective of chain operators, and from the perspective of developers and users.
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