On November 1, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, discussed the potential impact of the 2024 U.S. presidential election on the crypto market on the Unchained podcast.
说,如果你要选择一种 meme 币,那就选择 Goat。
Say, if you had to choose a meme coin, choose Goat.
Arthur:是的,不过我持有 Goat 是因为它是 Ethena 生态的一部分,而不是因为它是一种 meme 币。
Arthur: Yes, but I hold Goat because it is part of the Ethena ecosystem, not because it is a meme coin.
Laura:好的,那我们来聊聊宏观经济。你之前提到,无论谁当选,都将继续印钱。这方面有什么具体预期吗?
Laura: Okay, let’s talk about macroeconomics. You mentioned earlier that whoever is elected will continue to print money. Are there any specific expectations in this regard?
Arthur:我认为主要经济体(美国、欧盟、日本和中国)在历史上都曾因应金融挑战而扩张货币供给,这包括 2008 年金融危机、新冠疫情以及其他经济衰退。这些经济体都采取了量化宽松政策,并降低利率以刺激经济增长。
Arthur: I think the major economies (US, EU, Japan, and China) have historically expanded their money supply in response to financial challenges, including the 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19, and other recessions. These economies have adopted quantitative easing policies and lowered interest rates to stimulate economic growth.
现在,我们正面临着高通胀、利率上升以及经济衰退的风险,主要经济体可能会再次采取类似措施,以避免经济硬着陆。这将导致货币供给增加,从而推高资产价格,包括比特币、黄金和其他避险资产。
Now that we are facing high inflation, rising interest rates, and the risk of a recession, major economies are likely to take similar measures again to avoid a hard landing. This will lead to an increase in the money supply, which will push up asset prices, including Bitcoin, gold and other safe-haven assets.
因此,我倾向于在这些全球趋势下进行长期持有,而不是进行短期交易。
Therefore, I prefer long-term holdings on these global trends rather than short-term trades.
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